Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Cheap oil to slash inflation and bolster growth The slump in oil prices, along with renewed concerns about Greece, have taken a toll on investor confidence in the past week or so, causing equity markets to fall and demand for safe-haven assets to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Demand for mortgage lending contracted at the fastest pace since the financial crisis in the final quarter of 2014, but lenders expect a small recovery at the start of this year. By contrast, demand... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2015: Another year of strength? Last week’s data releases provided more encouragement that the economic recovery has a fair amount of momentum at the end of 2014. Indeed, barring any last-minute shocks, the UK economy appears to... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russia crisis: one chart to watch The Russian ruble has rallied over the past 24 hours, but there are growing signs that the crisis is spreading to the banking sector. In particular, interbank interest rates have jumped to over 27%... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The recent slowdown in the growth rates of the monetary aggregates should not be interpreted as a sign that economic growth will soon slow. In fact, the surge in bank lending is a clear indication... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Russia’s banks The ruble crisis has sparked fears of contagion to Russia’s financial sector and a meltdown in the economy. A rise in interbank interest rates tends to be best indicator of stress in the banking... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stress tests suggest stronger recovery in lending lies ahead The Bank of England’s stress tests highlight the progress that banks have made in strengthening their balance sheets over the last couple of years and suggest that credit supply is likely to pick up... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Super-low gilt yields unwarranted by economic outlook UK markets have taken the meaning of the word “gradual” in the Monetary Policy Committee’s forward guidance on the pace of interest rate rises to a new extreme. Overnight index swap rates imply that... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests unlikely to prevent lending revival in 2015 The Bank of England will publish the results of its latest stress test of UK banks this week. While we would not like to wager that all eight banks will pass this year’s tough assessment, the lifting... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long The unusual gap that has opened up between the economic performance of small firms and the performance of small-cap equity indices is more likely to be closed by a rise in equity prices. After all... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
