China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Bank lending came in much stronger than most had anticipated last month but the bigger picture is that credit growth overall remains on a downward path. 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Recovery not being driven by a new credit boom The Federal Reserve's third-quarter financial accounts help to dispel two myths about the recovery. First, the pick-up in GDP growth over the past few quarters is not being driven by a renewed boom in... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Are EM corporate bonds really that vulnerable? Since the end of October, emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have performed much worse than comparably-rated US corporate bonds. This has been the result of increasing credit spreads... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland prepares to lift capital controls but delays likely The Icelandic Government’s preparations to scale back capital controls early next year certainly represent a positive first step towards lifting the restrictions. However, we remain cautious at this... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt settlement increasingly unlikely before 2016 An improvement in Argentina’s foreign currency liquidity makes it much less likely that the government will reach a settlement with holdout creditors in the New Year and exit default. Indeed, we... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wealth management product risks under spotlight Proposed new regulations governing how banks handle wealth management products should help to contain risks in this rapidly growing area, though at the cost of crimping credit growth. 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Easing FDI restrictions are a small step in the right direction The decision this week to lift restrictions on FDI into the construction sector is another indication of the government’s willingness to address India’s investment needs. But even so, there is still a... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slump in oil price to support global growth in 2015 Global growth has cooled a bit in recent months. The expansion in the US and UK has continued, but China’s economy has slowed further, the euro-zone is stagnant and Japan is in recession. Looking... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay recovery finally gets underway At last, the UK’s real wage squeeze appears to be over. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up from 1.2% to 1.8% in September and so exceeded the same month’s CPI... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) While recent very slow growth in broad money and bank lending is not as alarming as it may initially seem, it should bolster the consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that it is still... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
