ECB Watch Preparing the ground for QE The ECB now seems to be taking deflation risks more seriously, implementing surprise interest rate cuts in September and leaving the door wide open to quantitative easing. With the economy apparently... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Diverging rate paths to favour gilts Since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is probably only a few months away from starting to raise interest rates, gilt yields are likely to depart from their three decade long downward trend soon... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Although August’s euro-zone monetary data showed further signs of improvement, lending is still contracting and, given the low uptake at the ECB’s first TLTRO last week, there is little sign that this... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary to keep rates at record low well into next year The National Bank of Hungary’s post-meeting press release reinforced the message that the MPC sees little pressure to raise interest rates. Indeed, with inflation likely to remain low, and economic... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the Baltics So far at least, the crisis in Ukraine doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact on overall exports from or capital flows to the Baltic States, despite their relatively large ties to Russia. However... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2014 Perhaps the most notable development in today’s quarterly surveys from the People’s Bank is the sharp drop in reported loan demand but there are some more positive developments too. Firms report... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit growth in Emerging Asia still unsustainable We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided. While there are encouraging signs that... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Problems at Bank Asya turn attention to Turkey’s bank risks The near-collapse of the Turkish Islamic bank, Bank Asya, seems to be an isolated incident, the result of political feuding more than bad credit decisions. But it has put the spotlight back onto... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More targeted support for small firms Although liquidity operations by the PBOC have received the most attention this week, further measures to support small firms that were announced by the State Council on Wednesday are arguably more... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Latest move by PBOC is not a policy shift The general impression seems to be that the latest liquidity injections by the People’s Bank are a form of stealth stimulus. But these are in fact run-of-the-mill operations designed to smooth... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Broad credit growth continued to slow in August. However, a rebound in net new bank loans last month suggests that concerns about weak demand for credit, following a collapse in lending in July, were... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Loan growth has remained stable in recent months though banks were predicting a sharp slowdown in lending following the sales tax hike. Nonetheless, we still think that borrowing will slow in the not... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus foreclosure bill will help banks but hit households The Cypriot parliament passed a controversial bill on 6th September, reducing the time it takes toforeclose non-performing business loans and mortgages. While the bill is likely to help banks ahead... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banking sector under scrutiny The Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) recent bailout of African Bank has raised concerns over the state of South Africa’s wider financial sector. But as we explain in this Watch, although other smaller banks... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Looser credit standards may help Italian firms More favourable terms and conditions for loans to Italian firms point to a possible pick-up ininvestment and industrial production in the coming quarters. However, there is little evidence we willsee... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
