Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Bulgarian bank run limited The latest activity data suggest that growth across Emerging Europe has strengthened in recent months, but there are a few clouds on the horizon. For a start, the latest data from Germany, the largest... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s small improvement in the euro-zone monetary data will not be enough to shake off concerns that the financial sector is a brake on the recovery and does little to diminish the risk that the... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2014 Business and household confidence in China took a turn for the worse this quarter, but it is not at an alarmingly low level. Meanwhile, banks are reporting a decline in loan demand, particularly from... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian bank failure puts region’s lenders back in spotlight The nationalisation of the troubled Bulgarian bank, Corporate Commercial Bank, over the weekend has put attention back onto Emerging Europe’s fragile financial sector. Given the rise in non-performing... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rate hikes in sight but policy still very loose Market expectations for policy rates have diverged in the past few weeks. The Bank of England suggested that its first rate hike could take place sooner than previously anticipated. Expectations for... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of our measure of M3*, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, accelerated to an 11-month high of 6.1% in May. This is entirely consistent with the recent rise in... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Policymakers’ efforts to channel bank lending to chosen parts of the economy are helping to support loan growth, even as controls on shadow banking continue to bite. Although this has helped to... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses warn about price pressures Recent trends in the small business sector highlight how an easing in credit constraints is oiling the wheels of growth and that a rise in both wage and price inflation may be lurking around the... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Three scenarios for how Asia’s credit binge will end We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable. While we don’t think an Asia-wide financial crisis is likely, the countries that have seen the biggest build-up... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Germany's share of total property investment unlikely to fall this year Euro-zone occupier markets stand to benefit as economic growth becomes broader based across the region. Yet while property investment in most countries should increase as a result, over the next year... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) Although the latest figures showed further signs of subdued growth in broad money and particularly bank lending, we doubt that this is a sign the economic recovery will lose steam soon. Indeed, it... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.14) Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in April. But April’s fall was the smallest since June last year. Indeed, there is little doubt that a gradual improvement in credit... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the fragile nature of the region’s banks and should spur the ECB to ease policy further at its meeting next week. 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A positive step on local government debt Allowing local governments to issue bonds is a key step towards boosting transparency and encouraging stronger oversight over fiscal spending. But a broader rebalancing of the revenues and spending... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack NPL ratio remains low but is set to climb Rising non-performing loans (NPLs) at Chinese banks have been making headlines recently. So far the increase has not been much to get excited about. Official data suggest the NPL ratio has barely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is a credit bubble building in the Philippines? The surge in credit that has been going on across much of Emerging Asia since the global financial crisis has been getting some well-deserved media attention recently. But while we have been flagging... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
