Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in the Philippines, but further hikes likely The decision to leave interest rates in the Philippines on hold at 4.0% today reflects a recent easing of inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, with credit still growing at an unsustainable pace and... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stress tests won’t revive the banking sector overnight The euro-zone’s latest bank stress tests may be more credible than previous versions and hence do more to restore confidence in the region’s banking sector. But the corrective measures required in... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Sep.) The tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases might finally be having a knock-on impact on the growth rates of the broader monetary aggregates. Our estimate of the broadest M3 measure shows that... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Sep.) & FX reserves (Q3) Credit growth slowed further last month, on the back of continued efforts by policymakers to address credit risks. Meanwhile, the fall in China's FX reserves reflects a stronger dollar, not FX sales... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While bank lending continues to expand robustly, credit in aggregate is growing less rapidly. In fact, household debt reached a fresh low relative to output in Q2. 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian lending slows but no sign of credit crunch… yet Lending conditions in Russia have tightened in recent months, but there is no sign yet that Western sanctions have led to a sharp drop in bank lending to the wider economy or a credit crunch on the... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is weak credit demand undermining monetary policy? There has been some suggestion that policymakers are struggling to stimulate lending because firms have little appetite to borrow. Credit demand does appear to have softened. But there is no evidence... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong matter to China? The economic fallout from a further escalation of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong would not be limited to the territory. Indeed, it is important not to underestimate the potential costs to... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor GDP Trackers suggest EM growth slowing once again Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been concentrated in Latin America and Emerging Europe, but there are some signs that growth has... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed ending QE3 but global policy still loose Although the US Fed is set to announce the end of its asset purchases in late October, global monetary conditions should remain highly accommodative. 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take fiscal pledges with a pinch of salt With the party conference season in full swing, attention has turned from the Scottish referendum to the main parties’ plans for fiscal policy in the next parliament. But while their new pledges may... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks linger in parts of the EM world As the Fed moves towards a first interest rate hike, the Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) shows that financial risks are at a decade low. As such, a systemic emerging market (EM) crisis seems... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan could deliver a positive surprise The analyst consensus is close to unanimous that the forthcoming Tankan will show a second successive decline. That’s not implausible given the continued weakness of the activity data. Nonetheless... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil debt risks: private sector still poses the greatest threat Some commentators have argued that the deterioration in Brazil’s public finances in recent years has raised the risk of a fiscal crisis during the next presidential term, which runs from 2015 to 2019... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Financial sector woes will continue to weigh on Vietnam Today’s GDP data show that Vietnam’s economy is showing gradual signs of a recovery from the financial crisis that erupted more than three years ago. Looking ahead, the government is making some... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
