Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus bailout suspension maintains exit risk Struggles to implement a foreclosures bill and the associated suspension of the Cypriot bailout highlight that exit risks are not confined to Greece. Admittedly, the risk of a near-term “Cyxit” is... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly More on the rising risk and effects of a Grexit The risk of a Grexit has risen further still this week with the positions of the Eurogroup and the Greek Government seeming to be as far apart as ever. Even if a deal is cobbled together at the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 15) The strong pace of growth in both broad money and bank loans is another reason to believe that the temporary bout of negative inflation, which almost certainly began last month, will not develop into... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) With mortgage credit conditions loosening, the labour market on fire and household formation strengthening, January’s decline in housing starts should soon give way to solid gains in homebuilding. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has been behind capital flight from Russia? It has been suggested in some quarters that huge capital outflows from Russia last year were largely due to external debt repayments and thus should not be seen as a major cause for concern. But while... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private debt in EMs: big risk or damp squib? Concerns about the rapid growth of private sector debt in EMs have resurfaced in recent days. Our view remains unchanged: fears that a debt crisis will engulf the entire emerging world are overdone... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What hope of a Greek deal now? As negotiations over Greece’s bailout stalled last night, the two sides seemed as far apart as ever. A deal still seems possible, but it might require a time-consuming Greek referendum. And in the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Time is running out for Greece The failure of the Eurogroup last week to agree even on steps for further discussions on Greece does not bode well for the emergence of a full solution at Monday’s meeting. This could prompt nerves... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have Basel III regulations fuelled the rally in US Treasuries? Basel III regulations appear to have increased US banks’ demand for Treasuries and helped to depress yields at the short end of the curve. What’s more, the continued phasing in of the regulations... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s lending data suggest that while a slightly more accommodative policy stance has continued to support bank lending, broader credit growth remains on a downward path. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is deleveraging over? It is often claimed that the world is “awash with debt” and that there has been little, if any, progress with deleveraging since the global financial crisis. But in reality, the picture is more mixed... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
