Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Venezuela in crisis, but EM risks generally low Our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI) reports that the overall level of emerging market (EM) risk remains at a decade low, but that concerns remain about a handful of countries. Venezuela... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers beginning to spend their oil windfall Household spending has picked up sharply in response to the collapse in oil prices. In January, the growth rate of underlying retail sales in advanced economies reached its highest level since 2006... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region’s banks in better shape to weather an external shock The provisional approval of the extension of the Greek bailout has calmed the markets, but the bigger picture is that the road ahead is still long and bumpy. This means that a Greek exit from the euro... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth continues to cool, but concerns remain The slowdown in private sector lending growth across Latin America should help to ease concerns about the build-up of credit bubbles in the region. However, the accumulation of private sector debt... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest money and credit figures indicated that the economic recovery is continuing to progress at a robust pace without leading to the rapid accumulation of debt. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Feb.) & Mortgage Approvals (Jan.) The latest manufacturing and lending figures brought further encouragement that the economic recovery is regaining pace after late 2014’s soft patch. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rate cut alone won't boost lending The People's Bank has cut benchmark rates in order to help some indebted firms cope with the rise in real borrowing costs that has resulted from lower inflation. But the central bank still appears to... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The unveiling of a new, lower GDP growth target at the National People’s Congress would be an encouraging sign that the government is facing up to the continued slowdown in China’s sustainable rate of... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a recovery in exports finally underway? One feature that the recovery has been lacking for a long time is a pick-up in exports. But last week’s GDP figures offered some encouragement that the much-anticipated rebalancing of the economy is... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global easing cycle not over yet There has been a wave of rate cuts across the world since the start of the year. And we expect monetary policy to be loosened further in a number of economies over the coming months. This should help... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions were healthy at the start of the year, suggesting the ECB’s policy stimulus is already having an effect. 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How negative can interest rates go? Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates into negative territory this month, following in the footsteps of the Danish and Swiss central banks and the ECB. Although central bankers are instinctively... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
