Europe Economics Update Iceland prepares to lift capital controls but delays likely The Icelandic Government’s preparations to scale back capital controls early next year certainly represent a positive first step towards lifting the restrictions. However, we remain cautious at this... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt settlement increasingly unlikely before 2016 An improvement in Argentina’s foreign currency liquidity makes it much less likely that the government will reach a settlement with holdout creditors in the New Year and exit default. Indeed, we... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wealth management product risks under spotlight Proposed new regulations governing how banks handle wealth management products should help to contain risks in this rapidly growing area, though at the cost of crimping credit growth. 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Easing FDI restrictions are a small step in the right direction The decision this week to lift restrictions on FDI into the construction sector is another indication of the government’s willingness to address India’s investment needs. But even so, there is still a... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slump in oil price to support global growth in 2015 Global growth has cooled a bit in recent months. The expansion in the US and UK has continued, but China’s economy has slowed further, the euro-zone is stagnant and Japan is in recession. Looking... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay recovery finally gets underway At last, the UK’s real wage squeeze appears to be over. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up from 1.2% to 1.8% in September and so exceeded the same month’s CPI... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) While recent very slow growth in broad money and bank lending is not as alarming as it may initially seem, it should bolster the consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that it is still... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does the Chancellor have up his sleeve? While the rumour mill has been fairly silent, the Chancellor is surely piecing together a small package of measures for his Autumn Statement to provide a pre-election boost to households’ finances. A... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB to join Bank of Japan in full-blown QE Although the Fed ended its asset purchases in October, and is set to start raising policy rates in the coming months, global monetary conditions will remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ undertake... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What impact will the rate cut have, and what happens next? We foresee two more cuts in China's benchmark lending rates by the middle of next year but not the sizeable acceleration in credit that would be needed for a substantial pick-up in GDP growth... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC may not wait as long as markets expect In the space of just three months, UK markets have pushed back their expectations for the first rise in official interest rates from February to November 2015. This may turn out to be an overreaction... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Broad credit growth continued to slow in October, supporting our view that, despite recent liquidity injections, the People’s Bank (PBOC) is seeking to keep credit growth on a downward trajectory. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
