China Data Response Lending, credit (Dec.) & FX reserves (Q4) While a pick-up in banking lending growth in December suggests a slightly more accommodative policy stance, we think stronger growth in other forms of credit reflects a weak base for comparison due to... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) While bank lending expanded at a record pace last year, leading indicators still point to a slowdown in loan growth in coming months. 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation expectations to require policy response The collapse in oil prices will force the Bank of Japan to tear up its inflation forecasts at the Policy Board meeting next week. It is also likely to set back efforts to lift inflation expectations... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Low oil price drives up US high-yield corporate spreads The spreads over Treasuries of US high-yield corporate bonds have risen further since the end of November, continuing their increase since the autumn. This has largely been driven by a rise in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE now better placed to weather a Greek exit from the euro-zone Renewed fears of a Greek exit from the euro-zone have raised concerns about contagion to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This is understandable. After all, when the threat of euro-zone break-up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Cheap oil to slash inflation and bolster growth The slump in oil prices, along with renewed concerns about Greece, have taken a toll on investor confidence in the past week or so, causing equity markets to fall and demand for safe-haven assets to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Demand for mortgage lending contracted at the fastest pace since the financial crisis in the final quarter of 2014, but lenders expect a small recovery at the start of this year. By contrast, demand... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2015: Another year of strength? Last week’s data releases provided more encouragement that the economic recovery has a fair amount of momentum at the end of 2014. Indeed, barring any last-minute shocks, the UK economy appears to... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate ceilings? The Swiss National Bank introduced a negative deposit rate yesterday, but its main tool to combat the threat of deflation is a ceiling for the Swiss franc. Given the continued threat of deflation and... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russia crisis: one chart to watch The Russian ruble has rallied over the past 24 hours, but there are growing signs that the crisis is spreading to the banking sector. In particular, interbank interest rates have jumped to over 27%... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The recent slowdown in the growth rates of the monetary aggregates should not be interpreted as a sign that economic growth will soon slow. In fact, the surge in bank lending is a clear indication... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
