UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.) & Money and Credit (Dec.) The January Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey showed that the sector started 2016 on a slightly better footing. But with headwinds to the sector remaining, any near-term improvement is likely to be... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How sustainable are public debt burdens? Over the past few years, the governments of most advanced economies have made a lot of progress in repairing the damage caused to their public finances by the global financial crisis. The majority... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit not a concern yet The pick-up in unsecured borrowing growth is starting to ring alarm bells, but we do not think that this poses a major threat – at least not yet. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will higher corporate credit spreads produce a spike in property yields? In view of their strong past relationship, the latest jump in corporate bond yields could be a sign of an imminent turning point for European property markets. However, we are inclined to look through... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money measure slowed to a three-and-a-half year low of 4.1% in December, but the slightly narrower M2 measure increased by a solid 6.0% last year, while bank loans... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slowdown in bank lending to continue Today’s Senior Loan Officer Survey showed that loan demand remained subdued last quarter. While the survey has not painted an accurate picture of credit conditions lately, it suggests that the recent... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece pass its first bailout review? There would appear to be a good chance that Greece will pass the first formal review of its third bailout programme. But nothing is certain and even a successful outcome won’t necessarily mark the... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still supportive Broad money and private sector credit have continued expanding steadily in recent months. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has been growing rapidly while in emerging economies it has slowed... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Lenders reported rising credit availability for both commercial and residential property in the final quarter of last year. And expected demand suggests that interest in buy-to-let is holding up... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Today’s data suggest that lending to the real economy remained strong at the end of last year, which should help support economic activity in the coming months. The loose monetary stance currently... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No sign (yet) of an EM credit crunch EM credit growth remains weak by its usual standards but there is no evidence (yet) of a widespread “credit crunch” that could be the precursor to a more serious downturn in economic activity. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
