UK Housing Market Update What is the outlook for bank funding costs? Since the turn of the year, market jitters have made longer-term wholesale bank funding more expensive. But cheap short-term funds may prevent a sharp rise in deposit rates, and therefore keep funding... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new TLTROs boost bank lending? The latest changes to its lending operations mean that the ECB will now pay commercial banks to lend to the wider economy. But we still suspect that they will be unwilling to take the associated risks... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) China’s credit data show some extreme swings in the past two months which are the result of seasonal factors. But the underlying picture is that credit growth continues to accelerate, consistent with... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Japan write off its JGB holdings? At first glance, a write-off of the Bank of Japan’s huge JGB holdings offers a simple solution to the country’s debt problem. But it is not clear that such a drastic step would actually help... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Outlook for remittances remains upbeat The recent market turbulence cast a spotlight on the potential for shifts in capital flows to destabilise emerging markets such as India. One factor that often gets overlooked is the role of overseas... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Corporate bond yields have collapsed since the Bank of Japan adopted negative interest rates. However, with bonds only accounting for a quarter of corporate debt, bank lending rates would also have to... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM capital outflows declined markedly last month, to around $40bn, one of the lowest figures in the past year. This was driven by a fall in outflows from China... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the rise in auto loans a concern? The rapid growth of auto loans in recent years has prompted claims that the next unsustainable debt bubble is emerging. For now, however, there appears to be little cause for concern. Although the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will only have added to mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, at this stage we do... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data added to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union is slowing, putting further pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly at its... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: anatomy of a budget meltdown We estimate that only one-sixth of the jump in Brazil’s budget deficit over the past two years has been due to a drop in tax receipts. Instead, the bulk (five-sixths) has been due to a rise in... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Banking sector fears overdone One of the main areas of concern in markets in recent weeks has been the banking sector, both in the UK and overseas. However, we do not think that this pessimism about the UK’s banking sector is... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower interest rates to save Osborne’s bacon again While most developments since November’s Autumn Statement bode poorly for the public finances, lower interest rates should provide an offset. However, the Chancellor would be unwise to spend this... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growth still strong in the US, and rebounding in China Broad money growth has slowed somewhat in the four major advanced economies in recent months. However, bank lending to the private sector, which is a better guide to economic prospects, has generally... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What measures are needed to revive the banking sector? Comments last week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that local banks are in need of "deep surgery" has refocused attention on the ailing sector. Large-scale capital injections, increased private... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil slump unlikely to cause major problems in Gulf banking sectors The slump in oil prices has raised fears that banks in the Gulf could come under strain, as governments withdraw deposits, foreign exchange reserves are depleted and assets begin to sour. But, while... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
