China Economics Weekly PBOC won’t defer rate cuts indefinitely In its Q2 monetary policy report published earlier this week, the PBOC vowed to make timely adjustments to policy but stopped short of signalling rate cuts. For now, the central bank seems focussed on... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Bank loan growth slowed for the 16th consecutive month in July, hitting yet another record low of 5.1% y/y, down from 5.2% in June. Household demand remained particularly weak, with household loan... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit & AI debt fears miss the bigger picture While private credit and debt-financing of AI investment dominate the headlines about vulnerabilities surrounding corporate debt, the big picture is that business finances are in a healthy state... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The Bank of Korea – AI boom vs domestic weakness 27th August 2026, 9:00AM BST The Bank of Korea faces a tricky balancing act. The AI boom is powering chip production and tech exports, but domestic demand remains subdued.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery to be hampered by lending slowdown Private sector credit growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed sharply over the past year and we think it’s likely to act as a headwind to the recovery in non-oil sectors from the Iran war. 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia under pressure, financial risks across the region The challenges facing Russia’s economy increased further this week amid reports of more restrictive fuel export bans, spillovers from Ukraine’s drone attacks on logistics firm Wildberries and further... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026) Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed... 30th July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2026) June’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market remains weak, households may be funding some of the decent spending in June by lowering their saving rate, and... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone banks might be overdoing the pessimism The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) was quite downbeat, but we suspect that both bank lending and GDP growth will continue to be stronger than this survey implies. This would be consistent with the... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Banks and the bubble in AI Financials have been the best-performing ‘cyclical’ sector of the S&P 500 since the ongoing rotation out of information technology began on 2nd June. Indeed, they have been the second-best performer... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Year-on-year growth in aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE – the PBOC’s preferred measure of broad credit) fell sharply from 7.7% in May to a fresh record low of 7.4% in June. Both bank loan... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2026) May’s money and lending data show that households continued to save a bit less to offset some of the hit to their real incomes and have delayed, or perhaps even cancelled, house purchases in response... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Growth to pick up, but imbalances will persist China’s growth should pick up over the second half of this year as fiscal support ramps up. But domestic overcapacity will remain entrenched, leaving China’s economy reliant on exports for growth. 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
India Economic Outlook RBI will need to hike interest rates before long The energy shock has taken a toll on India’s economy but GDP growth should still average around 6.5% in 2026-27, an enviable rate by global standards. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon... 23rd June 2026 · 16 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to narrow rate corridor, no signs of healthier credit The PBOC has announced plans to increase its control over overnight interest rates, marking another step in its efforts to adopt a more orthodox policy making approach. Still, the PBOC's multiple... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
