Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read

China Rapid Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)

Bank loan growth in China was the slowest on record in May, but accelerated government bond issuance helped broader credit growth edge up. Fiscal loosening should support further gains in the near...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that economic activity has continued to improve in the past...

12th June 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Economics Update

France rating downgrade won’t be the last

With the government debt-to-GDP ratio likely to trend up over the medium term, and the budget deficit set to stay above 3% of GDP, we suspect that France will be subject to further rating downgrades...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher

The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV...

31st May 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2024)

While April’s money and lending figures suggest the recent rebound in the housing market is cooling and households reined in their spending in April, there was further evidence that the drag on...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024)

Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Bank deposit exodus, chip self-sufficiency

The recent slowdown in deposit growth does not signal a recovery in risk appetite among firms and households. On the contrary, it is being driven by their reluctance to borrow and their preference for...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision

After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC...

22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Financial conditions loosening, but still restrictive

Financial conditions have loosened somewhat in advanced economies this year, suggesting that the peak drag from monetary tightening is behind us. However, outside Japan, they remain tight by past...

16th May 2024 · 4 mins read