Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The rebound in employment and larger increase in hours worked in August suggest the economy bounced back following some of the temporary disruptions in June and July, thereby reducing the chance of a... 8th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus What’s behind South Africa’s growth problem? South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major... 6th September 2023 · 16 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market almost back into balance A growing number of indicators suggest that the labour market is no longer much tighter than it was in 2019 and that, as a result, wage growth is also likely to slow towards pre-pandemic levels soon... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the odd one out We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we... 4th September 2023 · 18 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 187,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, jump in the unemployment rate and slowdown in wage growth in August all add to the evidence that labour market conditions are approaching pre-pandemic norms... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker economy, lower inflation Data released this week are consistent with our view that euro-zone core inflation has passed its peak and that the economy will contract in Q3. And July’s euro-zone retail sales and German industrial... 1st September 2023 · 9 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Employment growth in July was near the average seen in 2023 thus far, at a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% 3m/3m across the 30 metros we cover. But the disappointing performance of information jobs continues... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August) The decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in August leaves it consistent on past form with GDP stagnating at best in Q3. And while the survey suggests that hiring intentions... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market has normalised The July JOLTS data cast further doubt on the idea that the Fed will need to keep rates high for longer. With the job quits rate now below its pre-pandemic peak and the job openings rate also rapidly... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still an inflation threat in Lat Am & CEE Despite the slowdown in EM GDP growth in Q2, there’s little sign that labour markets are softening. Wage growth remains alarmingly strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE). That... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany struggling but “sick man” is overdoing it Worries that Germany is becoming the “sick man of Europe” have resurfaced over the past few weeks. While we think the German economy is heading back into recession this seems too alarmist. In many... 25th August 2023 · 10 mins read
