US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q2) The further slowdown in wage growth evident in the second-quarter employment cost index data won’t be enough to prompt a surprise rate cut from the Fed later today, but it does strengthen the case for... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin... 31st July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Wage pressures continue to ease The JOLTS labour market data for June will do little to change the Fed’s assessment of labour market conditions ahead of its policy announcement tomorrow, with slack continuing to grow gradually and... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (June) The conundrum of low unemployment despite falling job openings continued in June and we expect the labour market to keep treading water over coming months. 30th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi gets the memo on employment The FY24/25 Union Budget this week showed a shift in the government's focus towards improving employment, likely in response to the BJP's underwhelming performance in the general election. While a... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth on a firm downward trend We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Sticky services inflation raises upside risks Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather... 25th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Olympics no game changer for French economy Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP... 24th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Pay rise for NHS staff and teachers not a big inflationary risk We doubt the independent pay review bodies’ recommendations for the government to give teachers and NHS staff a 5.5% pay rise will prevent wage growth from slowing to 3.0% by the end of next year. But... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2024) The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We... 22nd July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May 2024) While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
