Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2024) The RBA probably won’t read too much into the fact that annual wage growth stalled last quarter. A gradual loosening of the labour market should ensure that wage pressures do ease in the quarters... 13th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s balancing act weighs risks on both sides With the Summary of Deliberations this week confirming that the Bank of Canada is putting more weight on the downside risks, we feel confident that the Bank will continue to cut interest rates at each... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2024) The second consecutive small fall in employment might seem to suggest that the labour market has taken a further turn for the worse, but it mainly reflected soft part-time employment among younger and... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Diverse occupier base to support Southern office demand After an already-tough H1 for information sector jobs, we expect the second half of the year to see further cuts, which will be bad news for tech-heavy metros in the West. But a more diverse occupier... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we... 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2024) Although employment growth in Q2 was stronger than most had anticipated, it didn’t keep the unemployment rate from climbing higher. What’s more, a look under the hood suggests the labour market is in... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (June 24) The enormous rise in labour cash earnings in June was mostly driven by a jump in summer bonus that won’t be sustained, but the figures clearly point to another BoJ rate hike later this year if the... 6th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (July 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.4 isn’t much to get excited about given it remains weak, but the corresponding increase in the employment index should soothe concerns that the labour... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market cracks raise risk of hard landing The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each... 2nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has slowed recently but we think it will regain some momentum during the second half... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jul.) The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and sharper rise in the unemployment rate makes a September interest rate cut inevitable and will increase speculation that the Fed will kick off its loosening... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Could the RBA still hike rates? Following the downside surprise in Australia's Q2 CPI data, investors are betting that rate cuts will be on the table before long. While we do agree that the RBA's next move is likely to be down, that... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
