Japan Economics Weekly BoJ preparing the path for further policy changes Governor Ueda has this week been preparing the ground for the next steps in the BoJ’s retreat from ultra-loose policy. Stronger recent wage data and increasing pressure for further, larger pay hikes... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There... 9th November 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A corollary to the Sahm rule With the unemployment rate rising, the Sahm rule will probably be triggered soon. That will prompt claims a recession has started but, since that rise is due to increased labour supply as much as it... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have... 3rd November 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rise in unemployment rate not a big macro concern At face value, a sharp rise in unemployment last month suggests that the Indian economy is rapidly losing momentum. But on closer inspection, the increase was entirely caused by rising joblessness in... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The more modest rise in employment and essentially unchanged hours worked in October suggest that labour demand is easing gradually, and the 0.2%-pt rise in the unemployment rate shows that the... 3rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Oct.) The muted 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October is another sign that the economy’s strength in the third quarter is likely to unwind in the fourth. With wage growth also continuing to slow, it... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong wage growth to delay ECB rate cuts Wage growth looks to finally be slowing in the euro-zone amid weaker economic growth and falling inflation, but it remains too high for comfort. As a result, we think the ECB will wait until a more... 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Sharper fall in wage growth still on the cards The September JOLTS data suggest that the labour market is loosening at a slightly slower pace, but still point to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead. There is little support for the idea that... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) September’s employment growth was below the average for 2023 thus far, recording 0.4% 3m/3m across our 30 covered metros once seasonally-adjusted. Meanwhile, office-based jobs remained unchanged on... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Faster wage growth should give BoJ confidence to tighten With wage growth set to strengthen further over the coming year, we think the Bank of Japan will soon have sufficient confidence in the sustainability of higher inflation to end negative interest... 1st November 2023 · 13 mins read
