UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2023) Cooling labour market conditions appeared to start feeding through into an easing in wage growth in August. That supports our view that interest rates have peaked at 5.25%. But as we suspect wage... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Labour market should tighten again before long The job-to-applicant ratio has usually signalled earlier than the Tankan that the labour market has taken a turn for the worse. But despite the recent fall in the number of jobs relative to applicants... 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The latest activity and survey data have provided even more evidence that the resilience in activity in advanced economies over the first half of 2023 is now fading. High interest rates are clearly... 13th October 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand elections won’t usher in major changes Opinion polls in the run up to tomorrow’s general election in New Zealand suggest that the centre-right National party is in pole position to wrest power from the incumbent, centre-left Labour party... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The impact of net migration on Australia’s economy Most of the recent surge in net migration has been driven by the increased arrival of foreign students, who generally spend less, work fewer hours and demand less housing than the average Australian... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s tight labour market continues to feed inflation Tightness in Mexico’s labour market continues to fuel wage pressures, with real wages now rising at their fastest pace since the early 2000s. But this isn’t being matched by productivity growth and... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The strong headline employment gain in September was entirely due to a rebound in educational services employment, with employment elsewhere edging down. That suggests labour market conditions... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Sep.) The surprisingly strong 336,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September adds to the evidence on real activity that the economy is holding up well despite the headwind from higher interest rates. 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle continues as yen weakens The sudden strengthening of the yen after it breached 150 against the dollar earlier this week has triggered speculation that the Ministry of Finance sold foreign exchange reserves to support the yen... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on... 4th October 2023 · 1 min read