Growth in base pay rose to its highest figure since 1992 in November, and we think that it will continue to hold strong through to this year. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash earnings rose by 3% in November. That was broadly in line with our forecast and was much higher than the 2.2% increase in October. Regular earnings growth rose anew from 2.5% to 2.7%. As a result, it contributed a strong 2.3%-pts to overall labour cash earnings. However, it’s worth noting that the preliminary estimate for regular earnings growth has been revised down in 9 out of 10 months so far this year, with the last revision in October being 0.1%-pts. We suspect it will also be revised down in November as well.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.