UK Economics Update Labour market not as strong as it looks The recent strength of employment growth suggests that the labour market is in rude health. However, with some of the more forward-looking measures of employment intentions having started to weaken... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment to hit ten-year high The labour market is set to be a prime casualty of the prolonged slowdown in the UK economy that is underway. We think unemployment will rise by about 700,000 by the end of 2009, taking the... 4th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment to hit ten-year high The labour market is set to be a prime casualty of the prolonged slowdown in the UK economy that is underway. We think unemployment will rise by about 700,000 by the end of 2009, taking the... 4th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The final blow for consumers? We are confident that the housing market slowdown will bring the recent strong rates of household spending growth to an end. At the same time, we are optimistic that aggressive interest rate cuts will... 21st January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public sector not the key threat to pay growth The inflationary risk posed by the mounting unrest about the Government’s hard-line stance on public sector pay is fairly limited. The main risk to pay growth comes directly from the private sector... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update January pay round should again pass without event The latest information on pay settlements suggests that workers are gaining the upper hand in pay bargaining. But while the risk of a substantial pick-up in pay growth is the biggest in a few years... 4th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Employment growth to pick up as profits recover A variety of factors has been put forward to explain the recent weakness of employment growth. But the only one that seems to stand up to scrutiny is the recent squeeze on firms’ profits growth from... 12th July 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Employment growth to pick up as profits recover A variety of factors has been put forward to explain the recent weakness of employment growth. But the only one that seems to stand up to scrutiny is the recent squeeze on firms’ profits growth from... 12th July 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has the wages threat passed? The threat of a sharp rise in wages growth following the rise in consumer price inflation seems to have passed. A bigger risk now is that a tightening labour market pushes up wages growth instead. But... 26th June 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has the wages threat passed? The threat of a sharp rise in wages growth following the rise in consumer price inflation seems to have passed. A bigger risk now is that a tightening labour market pushes up wages growth instead. But... 26th June 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Influx of migrants to widen current account deficit National Statistics’ estimates of the amount of money sent abroad by migrants, or “remittances”, take no account of the large rise in the size of the UK’s migrant population in recent years and are... 6th June 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Labour market reform critical to Polish prospects Radical labour market reforms could boost potential GDP growth in Poland to 7% per annum. But with little political appetite for reform, we think that growth will drop back from 6% this year to around... 23rd May 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary: the sick man of Central Europe? GDP growth in Hungary will slump to 2% this year and 2.5% in 2008 as a result of the government’s latest attempt to shore up the public finances. But once fiscal consolidation is complete, we think... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why should we worry if pay growth picks up? The Monetary Policy Committee will no doubt raise interest rates again if pay growth picks up over the next few months. But we think that the inflationary threat of any rise in wages growth is not as... 6th March 2007 · 1 min read
