UK Economics Focus A timetable for the 2007 pay round This Focus sets out the key pay settlements which are likely to be concluded in the coming months. The fact that average earnings rose by 4.1% in both 2005 and 2006, compared to the 4.5% which the MPC... 31st January 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A timetable for the 2007 pay round This Focus sets out the key pay settlements which are likely to be concluded in the coming months. The fact that average earnings rose by 4.1% in both 2005 and 2006, compared to the 4.5% which the MPC... 31st January 2007 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Wages pick-up to drive Japan’s inflation and interest rates higher Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees... 24th January 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Net migration has probably peaked The outlook for migration into the UK is crucial to the health of both the UK’s labour market and the economy as a whole. We think that net migration is probably now at its peak and set to slow. We... 3rd January 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone labour market about to hit the buffers? Estimates of the sustainable rate of unemployment suggest that the euro-zone labour market could be about to hit capacity constraints. But we think that the labour market recovery has plenty further... 1st November 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Subdued income growth to limit spending recovery Unless households reduce their saving further, consumer spending growth will not recover without a pick-up in income growth. But with the growth of household income set to remain subdued, we think... 16th October 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Jobless Benefits - Why rising unemployment might not be bad for the economy (Q3 2006) The downward trend in UK unemployment seen for more than a decade has gone into reverse over the last year. The jobless total has climbed by more than 200,000 already and looks likely to rise further. 4th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Immigration to keep wage pressures subdued The rise in immigration after the expansion of the EU in 2004 could be one of the most important developments in the UK economy in recent years. But we doubt that this rise has been fully captured in... 27th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay rises to remain subdued in January pay-round While there have so far been few signs of any second-round effects on wages growth from last year’s rise in headline inflation, the MPC has signalled that there is one crucial hurdle yet to clear... 9th January 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Ten steps to a weakening labour market For some time we have warned that unemployment is likely to rise as economic growth weakens. Indeed, claimant count unemployment has already risen for the last four months in a row. But this far from... 28th June 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Ten steps to a weakening labour market For some time we have warned that unemployment is likely to rise as economic growth weakens. Indeed, claimant count unemployment has already risen for the last four months in a row. But this far from... 28th June 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The implications of record German unemployment German unemployment reached a post-war high in January of over five million. In this Focus we examine the statistics in more detail and assess whether the labour market reforms currently being... 18th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Average earnings growth no barrier to lower interest rates Average earnings growth has recently started to edge dangerously close to the 4.5% threshold which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has previously stated is the maximum consistent with meeting its... 12th January 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Unemployment might not live down to expectations At the heart of the consensus view that the housing market and the economy as a whole will see a relatively soft landing over the next year or two is the assumption that unemployment will remain at... 15th December 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Labour market not as tight as it looks? Today’s labour market data revealed a further drop in unemployment, with the claimant count rate, already at a 29 year low, edging down further to just 2.7% in June. As such, concerns are building... 14th July 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Trend towards self employment to keep a lid on wages growth Wages growth has remained remarkably subdued in recent months, with last month’s data showing annual average earnings growth of just 3.2%. But with the labour market data also showing employment... 3rd February 2004 · 1 min read
