Europe Economics Update German labour market shakeout is just beginning The German labour market held up relatively well at the start of the economic downturn, at least partly reflecting Government incentives for firms to retain workers for shorter hours. But the severity... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will 'sticky' wages save the euro-zone from deflation? The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pay cuts intensify deflation danger Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. 18th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Far too early for a labour market recovery Activity in the labour market appears to have shared somewhat in the improvement seen in the wider economy over the past month or two. However, the lagging nature of unemployment means that it is far... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Far too early for a labour market recovery Activity in the labour market appears to have shared somewhat in the improvement seen in the wider economy over the past month or two. However, the lagging nature of unemployment means that it is far... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan's recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan’s recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting job losses increase the pain in Spain The Spanish unemployment rate rose at breakneck speed in Q1, suggesting that household spending is set to continue to plunge this year. Accordingly, we still think that the consensus forecast of a 2.9... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending can recover before unemployment peaks Past experience supports the view that sharp increases in unemployment will not necessarily prevent a recovery in consumer spending and overall activity, despite their adverse impact on household... 10th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending can recover before unemployment peaks Past experience supports the view that sharp increases in unemployment will not necessarily prevent a recovery in consumer spending and overall activity, despite their adverse impact on household... 10th March 2009 · 1 min read
