UK Economics Update Household disposable income to post smallest rise since 1982 Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strikes a limited threat to pay growth Industrial action by the likes of Shell and local government workers has fuelled fears of a return to the mass strikes and soaring pay of the 1970s. However, the labour market looks fundamentally... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wages growth in the 1970s and now The fact that wages growth has not yet responded to the rises in inflation seen over the last year or so is encouraging given that in the 1970s wages growth began to pick up just a few months after... 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay fears to prove overdone… again Any signs that the rise in inflation is prompting a general pick-up in pay growth could trigger an interest rate hike from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). So far, though, there have been no such... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further signs that immigration has peaked Today’s upward revisions to the ONS estimates of short-term immigration have left the figures looking more plausible. However, the more timely data on the number of Eastern Europeans finding work in... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further signs that immigration has peaked Today’s upward revisions to the ONS estimates of short-term immigration have left the figures looking more plausible. However, the more timely data on the number of Eastern Europeans finding work in... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Migrant flows - the UK’s loss is Poland’s gain The reported increase in the number of Polish workers returning home from the UK will favour Poland’s growth prospects to the detriment of the UK’s. However, this is a long-term development that will... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay growth remains well-behaved Today’s various releases brought tentative signs that the threat of a sharp pick-up in pay growth during the main start-of-year pay round is failing to materialise. Accordingly, this appears to be at... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market not as strong as it looks The recent strength of employment growth suggests that the labour market is in rude health. However, with some of the more forward-looking measures of employment intentions having started to weaken... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
