Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey adds to the recent run of worrying evidence on the euro-zone’s prospects. Our forecast for the economy to expand by 1.5% this year will depend on a renewed... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus As many Eastern Europeans going as coming Recent migration figures suggest that immigration into the UK has slowed sharply, while the number of migrants leaving the UK has risen. We think that net migration flows are now back to, or even... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Easing German labour costs to help exporters Recent trade union deals point to a slowdown in German wage growth, which will come as a welcome relief to hard-pressed exporters. This supports our view that a robust export recovery will see Germany... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wage costs pose no lasting inflation threat While the recent rise in consumer price inflation has been driven by temporary factors such as the VAT hike and higher energy prices, one potentially more persistent influence is the rapid growth of... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the pause in the Committee’s quantitative easing (QE) programme may be only temporary. If the recovery disappoints –... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about minimum wage increases? Proposed increases to China’s minimum wages are relatively small and they tell us very little about the outlook for inflation. 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan./Dec.) January’s flash euro-zone consumer prices figures further highlighted the distinct lack of inflation pressure in the region and offered hope that euro-zone consumers will escape the squeeze on... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German Unemployment (Jan.) January’s improvement in the EC euro-zone consumer and business survey was somewhat reassuring after the weaker tone of some of the recent other surveys. But we will need to see a sharper rise in... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Jan.) & Labour market (Nov./Dec.) The minutes of January’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the Committee is unlikely to change policy either way next month. Meanwhile, the mixed labour market data highlighted... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay freezes likely to remain commonplace With roughly as many settlements taking place in January as in the entire second half of the year, the start-of-year pay round will give us a steer as to whether or not pay growth is stabilising along... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay freezes likely to remain commonplace With roughly as many settlements taking place in January as in the entire second half of the year, the start-of-year pay round will give us a steer as to whether or not pay growth is stabilising along... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Unemployment (Nov.) November’s renewed increase in German industrial production is a welcome sign that the recovery there is back on track. But with unemployment still rising in the euro-zone as a whole, it could be some... 8th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone inflation reflects temporary energy effects. With economic activity still at very low levels, deflation remains a bigger risk for the region than high inflation in the... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What will be the implications of another jobless recovery? 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
