UK Economics Update The dent to the labour market from falling house prices There are a number of ways in which a weakening housing market could affect the labour market adversely, potentially sparking a vicious circle of falling house prices and rising unemployment. 13th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Productivity slowdown won’t stop employment falling The recession that looks likely does not have to be accompanied by falling employment - firms could just let productivity (i.e. output per worker) suffer instead. Indeed, employers have been reluctant... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Productivity slowdown won’t stop employment falling The recession that looks likely does not have to be accompanied by falling employment - firms could just let productivity (i.e. output per worker) suffer instead. Indeed, employers have been reluctant... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in German wages growth won't last long The latest evidence of rising German wages growth suggests that households’ real incomes are receiving some much-needed support. But we still expect slowing activity to prevent wages growth from... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household disposable income to post smallest rise since 1982 Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strikes a limited threat to pay growth Industrial action by the likes of Shell and local government workers has fuelled fears of a return to the mass strikes and soaring pay of the 1970s. However, the labour market looks fundamentally... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wages growth in the 1970s and now The fact that wages growth has not yet responded to the rises in inflation seen over the last year or so is encouraging given that in the 1970s wages growth began to pick up just a few months after... 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay fears to prove overdone… again Any signs that the rise in inflation is prompting a general pick-up in pay growth could trigger an interest rate hike from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). So far, though, there have been no such... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further signs that immigration has peaked Today’s upward revisions to the ONS estimates of short-term immigration have left the figures looking more plausible. However, the more timely data on the number of Eastern Europeans finding work in... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further signs that immigration has peaked Today’s upward revisions to the ONS estimates of short-term immigration have left the figures looking more plausible. However, the more timely data on the number of Eastern Europeans finding work in... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese output falls, wages pick up Today’s mixed bag of Japanese data contains something for everyone. The fall in industrial production is consistent with talk of recession, but the trend recovery in housebuilding continues and wages... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
