UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2023) June’s public finances figures revealed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing, bringing some cheer for the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections. But with... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit will be larger than we had thought While the ratio of tax revenue to GDP last year was the highest it has been since the 1980s, growth in tax revenue has been weaker in recent months than we had anticipated despite strong growth in the... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus How can Egypt unlock its economic potential? Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term... 20th July 2023 · 19 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Public finance risks in Colombia, boom in Mexico? The concerns about Colombia’s public finances that flared up this week are warranted in our view. We think that the public debt burden will remain well above its pre-pandemic level and higher than in... 14th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 12th July 2023 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Odds still favour a mild recession We still think a mild recession over the coming quarters is more likely than not. As the economy weakens and the downward trend in core inflation gathers pace, we think interest rates will eventually... 11th July 2023 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the Bundesbank need recapitalising? There are circumstances in which the Bundesbank’s losses over the next few years could require it to be recapitalised by the German government. However, we think these are unlikely to occur and the... 10th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia no closer to solving its sovereign debt problem Tunisia is struggling to get an IMF deal over the line and, unless President Saied’s government agrees in the near-future to allow the dinar to fall and to implement a large fiscal consolidation, the... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts. 5th July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery needs help but isn’t dead yet China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should... 28th June 2023 · 18 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Recession or not, growth to disappoint Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 27th June 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Green transition ≠ fiscal free lunch Getting serious about decarbonisation would be more costly for governments than many fiscal scenarios would have you believe. Of course, the net impact on the public finances would depend on how... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt deal, austerity in Kenya, SARB to hold? This week saw Zambia edge closer to getting a debt restructuring over the line, but an agreement with official creditors suggested that there remain sticking points when it comes to negotiations with... 23rd June 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Waiting for stimulus, heatwave highlights climate risks Aside from token 10 basis point rate cuts and an extension of EV tax breaks, there hasn’t been much in the way of policy stimulus yet. We still think a more meaningful, infrastructure-focused fiscal... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
