Japan Economics Weekly Tighter fiscal policy will weigh on activity next year Even though the Bank of Japan de facto ended Yield Curve Control this week, the yen slid to a fresh one-year low against the dollar. And while it has gained some lost ground since then as US Treasury... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s gas sector, Saudi budget, another MENA World Cup Egyptian officials confirmed this week that imports of gas fell to zero after Israel turned off the taps, which will curtail efforts to restart LNG exports. And with gas being cut to energy-intensive... 2nd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Godonwanga doubles down on austerity South Africa’s finance minister reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal consolidation in today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) but, even so, debt is now projected to peak at a much higher... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus High bond yields to push up Italy’s debt ratio to 150% The prospect of a long period of high bond yields and some signs of fiscal slippage by Prime Minister Meloni’s government have worsened the outlook for public finances in Italy. We now think the debt... 1st November 2023 · 19 mins read
China Economics Update Five takeaways from the Financial Work Conference China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This... 1st November 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been update with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Tight policy and a weak external environment will constrain growth over the coming quarters. 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Larger deficit comes with a catch Tighter oversight of off-budget fiscal activity has resulted in the first net fall in bond issuance by local government financing vehicles and policy banks in over two decades. That’s one reason why... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update New fiscal support needed to prevent end-year slump The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year. Fiscal... 24th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 24th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s crisis nearing a crunch point Tunisia is stuck in a deep economic and political crisis, and with the IMF’s staff-level agreement yet to be approved, and it is only likely to get worse. We have long held the view that Tunisia is... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal support coming in Israel, Tusk’s election win There remains significant uncertainty over how the Israel-Hamas war will evolve, but developments this week confirm that fiscal policy will be loosened as policymakers provide support to the military... 20th October 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Elections come into focus, RBI won’t relax yet Pre-election giveaways seem to have started in India and are likely to be ramped up further ahead of next year's general election. Although this could cause the Finance Ministry to narrowly miss its... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria spending, debt problems, South Africa CPI Sovereign debt restructuring discussions between Zambia and Ghana and their bilateral creditors have been encouraging, but challenging talks with private lenders remain. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Optimism on inflation, fiscal challenges for next government Although we still think that the UK’s inflation problem will dissipate slowly rather than suddenly and the situation in the Middle East poses an upside risk to our inflation forecasts, leading... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
