Public sector pay fuels unexpected rise in government borrowing “October’s borrowing figures underline the little wiggle room the chancellor has to significantly increase day-to-day spending,” Alex Kerr, economist at Capital Economics, said. “If she does want to... 22nd November 2024 · The Times
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s economy to accelerate Morocco’s weaker economic performance this year is likely to be a blip. Buoyed by low and stable inflation, looser monetary policy, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector, we expect Morocco’s economy... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2024) October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still faces, despite the big increases in spending and taxes announced in the Budget. And while the... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s debt risks revisited A year ago, we published an in-depth report arguing that the calm prevailing at the time around sovereign debt risks in Latin America wouldn’t last and that public debt dynamics would deteriorate... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in the Andes to disappoint The latest data suggest that Colombia and Chile underperformed Peru’s economy in Q3. Looking ahead, we think that lower prices for key commodity exports combined with relatively tight fiscal stances... 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 13th November 2024, 1:00PM GMT Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
Japan Economics Update How much power will the DPP have? Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic... 13th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update The costs of Spain’s floods and future climate events The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s public finances: alarm bells ringing The deterioration in Colombia’s public finances has spooked investors and, with the government showing no clear willingness to rein in spending, Colombian financial assets are likely to remain under... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer spending has further to run. With the Bank of Japan sounding more upbeat at their October meeting and... 12th November 2024 · 1 min read
