Japan Economics Weekly Government benefitting from higher inflation for now We previously argued that political pressure is one reason to expect the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. However, we suspect the government's stance on inflation has become more ambiguous. While... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, GCC debt, Morocco-IMF Speculation is mounting that Egypt may bring forward its presidential election, which would go some way towards explaining policy paralysis around the pound. If this persists and a de facto peg is... 21st September 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2023) August's public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. So while the Chancellor has ruled out tax cuts in the Autumn Statement on 22nd November... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal rules, Kenya austerity, Ghana CPI This week saw reports that South Africa’s Treasury is proposing to establish a new “fiscal anchor” in a bid to keep investors on side amid a worsening budget position. But a looser fiscal policy seems... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s budget, Argentina heading for hyperinflation? Sergio Massa's pre-election fiscal giveaway will put further upward pressure on inflation in Argentina, which is already running at the highest rate since 1991 when the country was exiting... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Addressing key questions from our Egypt drop-in Yesterday, we hosted a Drop-in webinar taking a closer look at the state of play in Egypt and whether the country can get its IMF deal back of track. You can view on-demand here. This Update addresses... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of Morocco’s earthquake The devastating earthquake that hit Morocco on Friday evening has severe humanitarian consequences, but, from a purely economic standpoint, it should only have a small and short-lived impact on GDP... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria policy mistakes, South Africa austerity Recent interventionist actions from Nigeria’s central bank and government have heightened our fears that growing political pressures are undermining policy reforms. This could see Nigeria’s inflation... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the odd one out We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we... 4th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s grim IMF review, Brazil’s budget deficit The acknowledgement by the IMF that Argentina's programme has gone 'off track' confirms that the Fund's patience is (belatedly) wearing thin. The next president will have to quickly make market... 1st September 2023 · 8 mins read
