Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Temporary factors support strong start to the year The strength of GDP growth at the start of the year reflected several temporary factors. The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, released next week, will provide a better guide to how firms and... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hawks, Ecuador’s political crisis The new fiscal rule proposed by Brazil's Finance Ministry yesterday might have eased the central bank's fiscal concerns somewhat, but we doubt it will bring forward the timing of interest rate cuts... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s new fiscal plans: yet to convince The new fiscal rule proposed today by Brazil’s finance minister would, if implemented in full, go some way towards stabilising the public debt ratio. But the government has a lot to do convince... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Water strains, Saudi-China relations, CBE meeting Tunisia and Morocco are in the midst of severe droughts that could weigh on activity in the key agricultural and tourism sectors, and could possibly stoke social unrest. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Full effects of high interest rates yet to be felt The economy made a strong start to 2023, but we continue to expect a moderate recession this year as high interest rates feed through and the banking issues in the US weigh on exports. The downturn... 29th March 2023 · 21 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government drops its fiscal anchor The 2023 Budget projects a much larger deficit than the prior Fall Economic Statement and, as a result, the government now agrees with our forecast that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise. Roughly half... 28th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 2023 Budget unlikely to include large stimulus Despite the news this week that the population surged by more than one million last year, weak new home sales imply that construction activity will soon fall. That raises the pressure on the... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
