UK government criticised for ‘over dramatic’ claims of run on the pound “If there was a risk of a run on the pound I completely missed it,” said Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics. He said the UK was “light years” away from the market conditions that surrounded... 3rd September 2024 · Financial Times
UK Economics Weekly Higher fuel duty wouldn’t reignite inflation In a week when the Prime Minister said that the coming Budget will be “painful”, we think there’s a growing chance that fuel duty will rise from next year for the first time since 2011. That will... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 24) Falling house prices and a soft labour market will continue to hold back consumer spending over the coming months. And with the PBOC concerned about a bond bubble, large-scale monetary easing appears... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget gridlock will keep Belgium’s deficit high Belgium's political crisis and high budget deficit have largely gone unnoticed in past couple of months while all eyes have been on France. This Update answers some key questions about its political... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to... 30th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '24) Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters... 28th August 2024 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2024) The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI... 27th August 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past buoyant public demand We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2024) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) 2024/25 forecast of... 21st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate... 20th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Harris unveils populist economic plan Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan today and it appears to be focused on mostly small-scale pocket-book populist issues. Our main take-away is that, like her opponent Donald Trump, she has shied... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
