Chief Economist's Note It’s not just France. Europe faces ongoing decline without fundamental reform at its core. When Europe features prominently in client questions it is not normally a good sign. The past few days have been no exception. The immediate concern is France, where the government of Michel Barnier... 9th December 2024
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24) The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Mission impossible to mission plausible By shifting its target from achieving the highest sustained growth rate in the G7 to delivering “higher living standards”, the government has gone from what looks like mission impossible to mission... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is France the new Greece? France is unlikely to have a government with a mandate to tighten fiscal policy anytime soon, so the risks to its bond market will continue to grow. Its debt dynamics are not as bad as those of Greece... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Will Trump get his new tax cuts? Although the Republicans completed a clean sweep in the recent election, we are sceptical that this opens the door to additional fiscal stimulus. We do expect the original Trump tax cuts, which are... 3rd December 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 3rd December 2024, 3:00PM GMT The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Parliamentary Election The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN optimistic on inflation, South Africa’s Article IV Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. But monetary... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
