India Economics Weekly Shifting policy stimulus, PMIs, coronavirus Satisfied that the finance ministry was doing its bit to support growth by announcing significant stimulus in the Union Budget, the RBI was able to focus on containing second-round effects from the... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone fiscal policy less effective than it once was Hopes for a substantial boost to economic growth in the euro-zone from fiscal policy in the next year or two are likely to be disappointed. It seems likely that any fiscal stimulus will be very small... 6th February 2020 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response Policymakers have loosened both monetary and fiscal policy in an effort to soften the economic blow from the coronavirus. Further easing is likely in the coming weeks. But if the virus peaks soon then... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asset sales target lacks credibility The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target in the budget for FY20/21 hinge on the smooth sale of large stakes in one of India’s worst-performing banks and a politically-important... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the fiscal stimulus deliver much bang for its buck? We think that the coming fiscal stimulus will raise annual GDP growth by about 0.6ppts this year and 0.25ppts in 2021. This is part of the reason why we expect GDP growth to beat the consensus... 3rd February 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek pensions: a step in the wrong direction A decade after the start of its first bailout programme, the Greek government has still not reined in the cost of its pension system. And the government’s recent decision to raise pensions suggests... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Policymakers step up African central banks had a busy month in January. Policymakers in South Africa and Kenya surprised the markets (and us) by cutting their key rates by 25bp. We expect that both countries’ central... 31st January 2020 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal policy to do heavy lifting, trade deal scepticism In tomorrow’s budget, the finance ministry will be trying to strike a balance between maintaining fiscal rectitude and supporting an economy in the doldrums. Some ambitious revenue projections... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Monetary policy is losing its power over households The downward trend in interest rates that began in the 1980s contributed to large falls in household saving rates in most advanced economies. But with larger proportions of people now nearing... 30th January 2020 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Path towards tighter BoE policy, and higher Gilt yields, is clearer The Bank of England left rates unchanged today, and we think that it will continue to keep policy on hold in 2020, before hiking in 2021. As such, we expect the 10-year UK government bond (Gilt) yield... 30th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin’s political shake-up: the economic consequences This Focus looks at the economic implications of the recent political shake-up in Russia. We begin with an overview of the political developments, then explain what they mean for economic policymaking... 29th January 2020 · 16 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends (Jan.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The rebound in the main balances of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey in January offers further evidence that sentiment has taken an upward turn after the general election. This should help to convince... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
