Latin America Economics Update BCB highlights limited space for policy response The Brazilian central bank’s (BCB’s) statement accompanying last night’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 50bp was surprisingly cautious and suggested that further easing isn’t on the cards. With the... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal costs of virus could easily top 10-15% of GDP The combination of the government responses to the coronavirus and the slump in economic activity will cause euro-zone budget balances to deteriorate by at least 10-15% of GDP this year. While this... 18th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response will be stepped up across the region The coronavirus outbreak has prompted interest rate cuts and fiscal support packages in several countries across Emerging Europe and we think that more easing lies in store. That said, Turkey’s easing... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Further fiscal stimulus will be needed The crisis package outlined today by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau will help to cushion the blow from the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But given the... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will fiscal policy ride to the rescue? With central banks already having used up most of their ammunition, we are now reliant on governments to prevent the global recession from turning into something even worse. We are optimistic that the... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in output to trigger large policy response The draconian coronavirus containment measures adopted by Australia’s government mean that we now expect GDP to fall by 2% this year. The Australian government is likely to respond with a larger... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t package cuts chances of financial crisis While the large package of measures aimed to counter the economic effects of the coronavirus unveiled by the government today probably won’t prevent a precipitous decline in GDP in Q2, it should help... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Likely slump in GDP to prompt bigger policy response We are now assuming a huge hit to GDP for the next eight weeks or so that results in growth of -10% annualised in the second quarter. But with policymakers acting quickly and working more closely... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed While the New Zealand government’s large stimulus package will soften the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, it will not prevent a recession. As such, we still expect the RBNZ to launch quantitative... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What more can policymakers do? There is much more that central banks could do to ease any strains that appear in financial markets. But with interest rates now more or less back to their effective lower bound in the US, euro-zone... 16th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New forecasts, limited policy responses It now seems likely that the effects of the coronavirus will take a heavier toll on Latin American economies than we previously thought, so we’ve revised down our 2020 growth forecasts across the... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Market rout as EZ policymakers fail to convince Despite a rebound today, euro-zone financial markets have had a disastrous week as policymakers, including the ECB, failed to convince investors that they will respond adequately to the economic shock... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Deteriorating outlook prompts bigger policy response The shift to more aggressive containment measures this week has prompted us to lower our forecast for GDP growth this year to just 0.6%. In response, we expect at least a 50bp rate cut by the Fed next... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A recession and more policy action is coming As it seems increasingly inevitable that a further spread of the coronavirus will have a significant impact on the economy, we are changing our forecasts. We now expect a recession that will involve... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
