Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s fiscal rule, US-China trade truce Adopting a more flexible fiscal target would give Indonesia’s government more room to support growth during periods of weak demand without threatening the country’s fiscal position. Meanwhile, Asian... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal risks to return Given the government’s tendency to overspend in election years, we think that Ghana’s budget deficit will rise to about 8% of GDP next year. This will heighten investor concerns and put pressure on... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2020 budget: austerity makes a comeback Saudi Arabia’s 2020 budget makes clear that the authorities are preparing for a prolonged period of low oil prices by introducing fresh fiscal austerity. This, combined with the deeper oil production... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Banking on fiscal policy There were further signs this week that the Bank of Canada has little intention of cutting interest rates. While November’s disappointing Labour Force Survey may make policymakers question their... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over to you, finance ministry While unexpectedly keeping rates on hold yesterday, the RBI put the onus on the finance ministry to do more of the heavy lifting to boost demand. So if we are right in thinking that the finance... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Falling profits, fiscal stimulus inflation The fiscal stimulus package announced this week is unlikely to lift growth meaningfully as most of the spending will merely offset the impact of previous stimulus measures unwinding. And with... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal stimulus won’t boost growth much The fiscal stimulus package unveiled today will include much less fresh spending than the headline suggests. And the bulk of the spending will merely offset the unwinding of previous stimulus measures... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rift, 2020 fiscal stance US President Donald Trump’s signing into law of the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act this week, after it received near-unanimous support in Congress, underlines the extent to which “standing up” to... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Core inflation hits multi-year highs across CEE Headline inflation has eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but that was entirely due to falling food and fuel inflation; core price pressures have continued to... 28th November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional giants both stumble Figures released over the past month painted a very downbeat picture of economic conditions in Africa’s two largest economies. Growth in Nigeria did, admittedly, pick up a touch in Q3. But activity... 28th November 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s central bank governor, Lebanese debt, Saudi tax The appointment of Egypt’s central bank governor, Tarek Amer, for a second four-year term will welcomed by investors as a sign that the government remains committed to orthodox policymaking and... 28th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales values fell more sharply in October than after previous sales tax hikes, but that largely reflects the smaller rise in prices this time around. Given that households brought forward less... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack More stimulus on the way in Thailand Looser monetary and fiscal policy should help to drive a modest recovery in Thailand over the coming quarters, and we are revising our GDP growth forecast for next year up slightly. Figures released... 26th November 2019 · 15 mins read
