UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Market Data (Apr./May) June’s MPC minutes left an extension of quantitative easing (QE) within the next month or two looking even more likely. We are sticking with our forecast for another £50bn of gilt purchases at the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What is the optimum re-configuration of the euro-zone? The economically optimal re-configuration of the euro-zone would involve the survival of a core Northern euro incorporating Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium. France’s position... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India still likely to cut rates later this year The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly left its repo rate at 8.0% today. Nonetheless, we expect it to cut rates by 50bp by the end of this year as its focus is likely to shift back towards... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold as political conditions worsen The decision by Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) to keep interest rates on hold was understandably overshadowed by rising tensions following today’s recommendation by the constitutional court that... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation rises but Reserve Bank still likely to cut rates Despite a rise in headline inflation in May, we think the Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut the repo rate by 25bp at its rate-setting meeting on Monday. The underlying inflation rate has not... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Renewed rate cuts likely in the Philippines by year-end The Philippines central bank (BSP) today left its main policy rate on hold at 4%, as expected. Although interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the next few months, with the crisis in the euro... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf are well placed to weather the storm One of the main channels through which the euro-zone debt crisis could affect the oil-rich Gulf economies is via a drop in foreign capital inflows due to heightened global risk aversion. In particular... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed probably won't act as soon as next week The intensifying crisis in the euro-zone coupled with signs that the US economic recovery is faltering have led to speculation that the Fed will provide more monetary stimulus at the next two-day FOMC... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to loosen policy by year-end The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. While Thailand’s economy bounced back strongly in Q1 from last year’s flood-induced slump, the focus has now... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy on hold for now as euro-zone crisis pauses The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will conclude its two-day June meeting this Friday (15th). We expect this to be uneventful for three reasons. First, the weekend’s bailout of Spain’s banks has reduced... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would trigger QE3? Unless the economy loses a lot more momentum or the eventual financial contagion from the crisis in Europe is much greater than we expect, the Fed is unlikely to launch a third round of asset... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to remain on hold in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate on hold for the fourth consecutive month and we expect rates to remain at their current levels for the rest of the year. However, in contrast to the... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households snap up Treasuries Households appear to be making a concerted effort to hold safer assets. In fact, in the first quarter they bought more Treasuries than the Fed and overseas investors combined. Should foreign appetite... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea likely to change policy stance soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) has become increasingly worried about the outlook for growth, but lingering inflation concerns are dissuading the central bank from loosening policy. We expect inflation to... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm policymakers content to play waiting game on rates Today’s decisions by Peru and Mexico to leave interest rates unchanged support our belief that, in the near-term, most of the region’s policymakers will await clearer evidence on the health of the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
