US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The various monetary aggregates show broad money growth is both strong and stable which, at the margin, makes a third round of quantitative easing look less warranted. In contrast, our own M3 measure... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jubilee boost masks weaker picture The effects of early June’s Jubilee celebrations are now starting to come through in the economic data. Last week’s releases provided evidence of the positive effects of the extended holiday, but... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank leaves rates on hold The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark refinancing rate on hold at 8.00% today, citing robust economic performance and that inflation is within the target range. Looking ahead, we think... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zone The drop in the euro exchange rate to its most competitive trade-weighted level in over nine years might appear to improve the euro-zone’s growth prospects and reduce the need for the uncompetitive... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How is China’s slowdown affecting emerging Asia? Figures released on Friday showed that China’s economy grew by just 7.6% y/y in the second quarter, the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009. The lead article this week examines the effect of... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising pound dents UK export hopes further The further rise in the pound against the euro appears to reflect safe-haven demand for UK assets and the weakening outlook for the euro-zone economy. These factors could yet push sterling higher. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru still on course for rate cuts later in the year While there was little doubt that Chile and Peru would leave interest rates unchanged last night, we continue to believe that both countries will lower rates before year-end. On balance, we feel that... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts rates, further cuts likely soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate to 3% today. It was a surprise that the move came at this meeting, but we have long held the view that rates would need to be cut this year to support the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia keep rates on hold, no change likely soon Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at a record low of 5.75%. Although inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second half of the year, with global demand set to remain... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan saves its ammunition The latest tweaks to the Asset Purchase Program maintain the bias towards “powerful easing” at the Bank of Japan, although for now the Policy Board has kept additional JGB buying in reserve. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to stay lower for longer Last night’s decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to cut interest rates was widely expected. With policymakers struggling to revive the economy, and external headwinds brewing, we think that... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Interest rates likely to remain low for years The Bank of Canada policy announcement next week, which almost surely will maintain the policy interest rate at 1%, is likely to acknowledge that the more modest outlook for the global economy has... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation fell in June on the back of easing core price pressures and a modest drop in food inflation. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economy could make or break the new president’s tenure The election of Dr. Mohamed Mursi as Egypt’s first democratically-elected president last month represented a significant step in the country’s transition. But as we expected, tensions between the new... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB out of ammo? After cutting interest rates to a historic low last week, ECB President Mario Draghi suggested that there was little more that the ECB could do. As far as conventional policy is concerned, this may... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
