Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What options does Sweden’s Riksbank have left? The growing unease over the potential impact of negative interest rates suggests that Sweden’s Riksbank will think twice about cutting the repo rate further below zero. It can draw on other policy... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates, but concerns about debt growing We think that today’s interest rate cut by the Norges Bank will be followed by another 25bp reduction in June. But concerns about household debt will prevent further loosening beyond that. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but battle against deflation is not won The lack of upward pressure on the franc following the last ECB meeting has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to leave policy on hold for now. But deflation dangers are particularly severe in... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed dovish today, but should turn more hawkish later The Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% today, while also lowering its projections for the pace of future rate hikes. Nevertheless, as inflation continues to rise and... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What inflation rate is the ECB really targeting? Despite its latest policy loosening, the ECB’s behaviour over recent years has been consistent with an inflation objective of closer to 1% than 2%. This has depressed economic growth and increased the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite lower gasoline prices weighing on headline CPI inflation, the much bigger story is the surge in core inflation to a four-year high of 2.3% in February, which illustrates that the Fed can’t... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but hikes are on the horizon Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row, citing low global inflation and a strengthening currency. But with inflationary pressures... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NPC puts short-run growth ahead of reform The National People’s Congress has ended today leaving us still feeling confident in our relatively upbeat view of the immediate outlook for the economy. But the leadership’s continued tentative... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in Sri Lanka? Sri Lanka’s request for an IMF loan should ease fears about a potential balance of payments crisis, but the mistakes that put the country in this position will need to be addressed. Most importantly... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but hikes are on the horizon Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row, citing low global inflation and a strengthening currency. But with inflationary pressures... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB about to launch the chopper? While the distribution of helicopter money in the euro-zone is not a likely near-term measure, the lesson of recent years is that seemingly unimaginable policies can become reality. And it may suit... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Feeling the squeeze 2016 is shaping up to be a better year for investors in Latin America than 2015. With global commodity prices now at a bottom and set to edge up this year, we expect most equity markets in the region... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update People’s Bank of China now as important for markets as US Fed The March FOMC meeting is likely to conclude tomorrow with US interest rates left on hold but clear signals that hikes will resume soon. However, the timing will remain dependent both on future US... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) Today’s GDP figures suggest Sri Lanka’s economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2015. However, we would be wary of reading too much into the data, given the serious doubts that remain over the... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Dovish Bank of Japan to announce more easing next month The Bank of Japan did not announce additional monetary easing at today’s meeting, but dropped some strong hints that it believes more stimulus will eventually be needed. We now expect policymakers to... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb. 16) The renewed fall in Sweden’s inflation rate in February was largely down to movements in energy prices. But with underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
