Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia takes steps to limit fallout from ruble crisis The Central Bank of Russia has this afternoon announced a raft of measures that, while on their own aresmall, collectively suggest that the authorities have at last started to develop a strategy for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) November’s consumer prices figures leave inflation on course to fall someway below 1.0% next summer. But this won’t prevent the Fed from dropping its “considerable time” pledge from its policy... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to panic over rupee sell-off India has not been immune to the turbulence that has hit EM markets over the past few days in the wake of the unfolding crisis in Russia. This has led to suggestions that the RBI is now likely to... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Naira and rand in the firing line Currencies in sub-Saharan Africa have continued to come under pressure this month, with both the South African rand and Nigerian naira falling to record lows. The naira has suffered from the further... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) & Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of December’s meeting indicated that the MPC remains focussed on the outlook for domestic price pressures. As such, the latest labour data showing that pay growth is building but... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay low to support growth The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% today against the backdrop of gradual improvement in the economy. With price pressures benign, we think the BoT will look to keep... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to the euro? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme appears unlikely to be big enough to push the euro down sharply. But the prospect of continued stagnation in the economy and impending monetary tightening... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets raise expectations of rate cuts The recent sharp slowdown in inflation, combined with dovish commentary from the RBI in its policy review earlier this month, have prompted India’s financial markets to price in the rising likelihood... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling energy prices jeopardise inflation target Policymakers will have been comforted by the jump in the Nikkei and the plunge in the yen since they stepped up the pace of monetary easing at the end of October. As such, they will almost certainly... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How did our 2014 forecasts stack up? In our final Weekly of the year we will be outlining our key forecasts for 2015. But this week we take a look back at how we did in 2014. Our downbeat forecasts for growth largely played out, as did... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Nov.) & Empire State (Dec.) November’s industrial production figures build on the message from the recent retail sales data, with both showing that economic activity is unambiguously strong. This may well set the tone for the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
