UK Economics Update Wage growth remains pivotal to timing of MPC rate rise Low inflation is likely to have meant that the MPC’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% this month was straightforward. And while signs that the recovery is maintaining its pace and pay growth is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: 50bp hike does not mark start of aggressive tightening The Central Bank of Brazil stepped up the pace of policy tightening last night but the accompanying statement gave a strong signal that future interest rate hikes are likely to be gradual. This... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2015 China’s leaders will be gathering in Beijing shortly to discuss priorities for 2015. In this month’s China Watch we outline our views on what to expect on growth, monetary policy and reform. 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada's last policy statement for the year retained its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. While acknowledging that inflation has been firmer than it expected, the statement... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC swayed by improving growth outlook The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, struck a dovish note. But it also stressed that the strength of the economy had eased... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can QE revive the euro-zone? The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to launch a full-blown quantitative easing (QE) programme this week or in January. But the political and economic limitations on the policy’s size and effects... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for it? The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds fire, but paves the way for imminent rate cuts RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept both the repo and the reverse repo rates on hold at 8.00% and 7.00% respectively today, but the accompanying statement suggests that rate cuts are likely as soon as at... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's first rate hike still a long way off The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) provided no surprises in its monetary policy decision today, keeping its policy rate at 2.5% and once again signalling that it has no intention of changing its... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to fall further as the market remains well-supplied Despite concerns about a chocolate shortage, the world cocoa market remains well supplied. With a slightly larger market surplus than originally estimated, and plentiful stocks, we think there is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB, BoJ and People’s Bank to loosen policy further Three of the world’s most powerful central banks have loosened monetary policy in some form in the past few weeks and they all look likely to do more next year, particularly given the recent slump in... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will higher interest rates choke off the housing recovery? Housing will be affordable and a touch undervalued even by the end of 2016, despite the prospect of interest rates rising over that period. The upshot is that the recovery in the housing market will... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
