Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation fell for the second consecutive month in December, confirming that it has peaked. We expect the CPI rate to fall further over the coming months, and to remain close to the central... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price plunge won’t distract MPC from underlying picture With the recovery showing signs of frailty and the chances of deflation growing, the MPC is under little immediate pressure to raise interest rates. But since lower oil prices should put the spring... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Egyptian inflation last month, which took it back into double-digits, rules out any possibility of an interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Egypt at next week’s meeting. 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate cuts, but spooked by Greece The National Bank of Romania’s Governor, Mugur Isarescu , struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, which suggests that the interest rate cut earlier today to a fresh record low of 2... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Temporary deflation won’t prevent rate hikes The latest fall in crude oil prices means that headline CPI inflation will drop below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the year. Nevertheless, this bout of deflation... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Oil price decline to bolster recovery in 2015 The halving of oil prices over the past six months should provide some timely support to the economic recovery. Indeed, coupled with the freezing of energy bills this winter, lower oil prices should... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro weakness set to be sustained Recent strong downward pressure on the euro exchange rate might ease in the very near term. But further ahead, poor euro-zone growth, the implementation of quantitative easing and fears for the region... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch 2015 rate rise still likely despite oil price plunge Heightened uncertainty regarding how weak inflation will be in 2015 and signs that the recovery has become less broad-based are likely to mean that the MPC keeps interest rates on hold at January’s... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit dangers darken euro-zone outlook There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka faces tight election contest Sri Lanka’s presidential election, scheduled for 8 th January, is shaping up to be much closer than expected, with the current president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, now facing a genuine challenge from... 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3), Durable Goods/Consumption (Nov.) The clear strengthening in activity towards the end of 2014 may prompt some Fed officials to consider whether they need to raise rates before the middle of 2015. 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policy to diverge further in 2015 Although the Fed and BoE are likely to start raising rates by the middle of 2015, global monetary conditions should remain very loose next year. The ECB is gearing up to announce a “full-blown” QE... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the ECB finance a euro-zone investment fund? The idea that the ECB should finance a euro-zone investment fund instead of buying assets through a conventional quantitative easing programme has several potential benefits. But the scheme probably... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
