Asia Economics Update Easing likely to resume in Indonesia soon Bank Indonesia (BI) left its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo, on hold today at 5.25%, but with growth struggling and inflationary pressures low, a rate cut is likely sooner rather than... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will term premiums anchor US Treasury yields? The term premiums of US government bonds – the parts of their yields that do not capture expectations for short-term interest rates – are unusually low. Indeed, according to the estimates of some Fed... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign of immediate post-referendum hit to spending The UK’s vote to leave the EU means that consumer spending growth is set to slow on the back of a weakening jobs market and a squeeze on real wage growth. Confidence has already fallen since the vote... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How the ECB could overcome its QE limitations If the ECB is to accelerate and extend its asset purchases next month as we anticipate, it will need to address the programme’s limitations, particularly relating to German debt. We think that the ECB... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth should pick up as headwinds fade After a muted performance over the past 12 months, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, albeit mainly because the drags from falling investment and inventories will fade... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) Today’s data showed that the labour market was strong prior to the referendum and the leave vote doesn’t appear to have caused any immediate damage. But the solid figures shouldn’t stop the MPC from... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Governor Kuroda is mulling another policy surprise Amid rising concerns that the BoJ’s large-scale purchases of Japanese Government Bonds cannot be sustained for much longer, policymakers are mulling the introduction of an explicit target for long... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16) Headline CPI inflation remained unusually low in July and the latest drop in energy prices will keep it below 2% for longer than we first thought. Core consumer prices rose by 0.1% m/m, which was... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Indian wholesale price inflation recorded another sharp rise in July, and it looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Japan’s economy stagnated in the second quarter, so spare capacity didn’t shrink any further. Adding in the deflationary impact of the stronger yen, underlying inflation should moderate further in... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The conventional wisdom is that the Bank of Japan’s large-scale bond purchases will soon dry up the pool of available assets. By contrast, we believe that QQE can continue for several more years. One... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought? Right now it is hard to find anything positive to say about Canada’s economy. Around the start of this year things seemed to be going in the right direction; with non-energy exports on a tear and the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit This week’s data provided more evidence that business investment and the property market will be hit hard by the leave vote. But with signs of resilience in consumer spending, and the Bank of England... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China adds to the outperformance of EM equities Whereas the collapse in Chinese equity prices sent global markets into meltdown last summer, they have begun to drive the outperformance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in recent weeks. A shift in... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit is still expanding at a faster pace than during most of the past couple ofyears. But the impact of earlier monetary easing is now waning and after peaking in May, credit growth is... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru MPCs hint that tightening done, but hikes still likely Having left interest rates unchanged last night, the Chilean and Peruvian central banks both removed the reference to a tightening bias in their accompanying statements. However, with inflation likely... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
