RBI Watch Finance Ministry puts ball back into Governor Rajan's court Signs of continued economic slack and the weakness of inflation are key reasons for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to resume its rate-cutting cycle in its upcoming policy review on 2 nd June. One... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA presses pause, not stop While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is highly likely to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2 nd June, we think it will cut rates further later this year. Our... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Pakistan repeating the same old mistakes? The aggressive series of rate cuts by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) over the last six months suggests that it may, once again, have become too complacent over the medium-term inflation outlook. 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response CPI (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) While headline inflation fell below the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% target range in April , the ongoing impact of the weaker loonie meant that core inflation rate was still as high as 2.3%. The impact... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Q1 GDP data confirm EM downturn Most emerging economies have made a weak start to the year. The Q1 GDP data released so far point to a slowdown in aggregate EM economic growth and early activity data for April suggest that this has... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia in no rush to cut rates despite low inflation Inflation in Malaysia looks set to remain low despite the introduction of a 6% Goods and Service Tax (GST), which came into force at the start of April. Although subdued inflation will give the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property to remain a drag despite stronger sales Growth in property sales returned to positive territory for the first time in over ayear last month, helped by lower mortgage rates and a loosening of purchasecontrols. But hopes that this marks the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to step up pace of easing in October The Bank of Japan’s more upbeat economic assessment today suggests that the introduction of more stimulus as early as July is off the table. However, we remain convinced that the prospect of prolonged... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa edges closer to rate hike The decision by South Africa’s MPC to hold the repo rate at 5.75% was accompanied by a statement that clearly paved the way for rate hikes over the coming months. We have pencilled in a 25bp rate hike... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB minutes reaffirm intention to see QE through The minutes (or “account”) of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 14th and 15th April underscored the message already given by Mario Draghi and colleagues, in the press conference after the meeting... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch January interest rate cut likely not enough At next week's policy meeting we expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate at 0.75%. Tighter financial conditions over the past month, however, may have it second guessing whether or not the... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC underplays inflation and current account concerns The press release accompanying today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. But we still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Underemployment to keep a lid on German pay growth On the face of it, the recent drop in German unemployment points to a sharp rise in wages that might make ultra-loose ECB policy difficult to justify. But there is more slack in the labour market than... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May) The minutes of May’s MPC meeting supported the message from last week’s Inflation Reportthat the most likely next move in interest rates will be up, but not for some time. Although two members still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
