Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jan.) & Labour market (Nov./Dec.) The latest labour market figures showed that the recovery in real wages is gathering pace. Despite this, an interest rate rise still looks a way off, with the MPC turning its attention in its recent... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Plan for NCBs to conduct QE will further limit its effects The proposed plan for national central banks to implement quantitative easing for the ECB has the benefit that these banks are best-placed to design an effective policy for their own economies. But... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s optimism reduces chances of near-term easing Apart from a minor tweak to its lending programmes, the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today and signalled no concern about the impact of lower oil prices. The chances of additional... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hikes looking more and more distant The recent drop in oil prices is not the only reason to think that consumer price inflation will remain low in New Zealand over the next couple of years. Domestic price pressures are also fading. We... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish central bank needs to do more to defend euro peg The viability of Denmark’s currency peg with the euro has been called into question following the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling. We think that the Danish peg will... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How durable is the Hong Kong peg? The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision last week to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. While the peg creates a number of problems, it... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary indicators Monitor (Dec. 14) The growth rates of the various measures of broad money have remained robust even after the Fed halted its large-scale asset purchases late last year. For 2014 as a whole, M3*, our estimate of the... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s rates on hold ahead of general election The upcoming general election may have influenced the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today. We suspect that once the election is out of the way, monetary... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, but monetary conditions to stay tight Today’s 50bp cut in the Turkish one-week repo rate, to 7.75%, doesn’t necessarily mark an easing of monetary conditions. It’s much more important to look at interbank interest rates, and these have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound to fall further as central bank loosens its grip The small fall in the Egyptian pound in the past couple of days is significant given that the central bank had kept a tight grip on the currency since last summer and we think that the pound’s... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does today’s slide in Shanghai matter? There had been signs even before today’s share price slide that China’s equity markets were coming off the boil. The direct impact of any sustained slump in equity prices would be small, both in China... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of ECB QE for Eastern Europe The ECB looks almost certain to launch a programme of quantitative easing this week but, unless it surprises in the scale and breadth of its asset purchases, the impact on the financial markets in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
