Asia Rapid Response

Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement (February)

13th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Slower food inflation won’t stop BoJ from hiking rates

Soaring food inflation has been the key driver behind the recent strength in headline inflation. Processed food inflation will remain high for a while yet but that won’t prevent overall food inflation...

13th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Upside inflation risks build across CEE

The latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been stronger than expected, and leading indicators suggest that inflation across the region may be higher than we previously...

12th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the...

12th February 2025 · 1 min read

RBNZ Watch

RBNZ Watch: RBNZ has several more cuts in the pipeline

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates by 50bp, to 3.75%, at its meeting on 19th February. Although the Bank is likely to revert to 25bp cuts thereafter, we think it has much...

12th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

With real household incomes rising the most in years and the savings rate rather high, the rebound in consumer spending will continue in 2025. And with the yen set to remain weak for longer and this...

12th February 2025 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the line that the Fed was in no hurry to adjust its policy stance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today. Given that inflation remains above target and the...

11th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Jan. 2025)

The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in January, to 4.6% y/y, was mainly due a drop in housing inflation and is unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering another 100bp hike to the...

11th February 2025 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA Watch: RBA will cut rates by only 75bp this cycle

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25bp, to 4.10%, at its meeting on 18th February. Although the labour market remains resilient and there are tentative signs of a pickup in...

11th February 2025 · 8 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive...

10th February 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate only slowed a touch to 24.0% y/y in January. But with earlier falls in the pound now starting to fall out of the annual price comparison, we expect Egypt’s headline...

10th February 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: Doubting the Bank’s higher inflation forecast

We doubt inflation will rise as far as the Bank of England’s new forecast suggests. The Bank's dovish tilt when it cut interest rates this week suggests it isn't putting too much weight on its own...

7th February 2025 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR?

Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly

Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage...

7th February 2025 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Estimates of neutral policy rate won’t tie ECB’s hands

Comparing the ECB’s deposit rate to estimates of its equilibrium level suggests that monetary policy will soon be only slightly restrictive. But there is a huge amount of uncertainty around these...

7th February 2025 · 4 mins read