India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in India’s consumer price inflation to 2.1% y/y in June raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further at its policy meeting next month. But given the RBI... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lat Am in Trump’s firing line, good news on inflation The broad-based falls shown in the CPI figures for June suggest that the inflation picture in Latin America has become a bit better, supporting our view that central banks in many places will deliver... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Falling inflation, trade uncertainty, equity underperformance June inflation data, due next week, is set to show headline inflation dropping to 2.6% y/y — the lowest in over six years — driven by tumbling food prices. Despite this, the RBI is unlikely to respond... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Stalling trade negotiations may delay BoJ rate hikes We still expect a trade deal with the US to be agree upon after the Upper House elections on 20 th July. However, given that very few countries have managed to reach an agreement so far, the... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA to drag out easing cycle as caution prevails The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this week came as a surprise to most. As it turns out, a majority of the Board preferred to wait for the full Q2 CPI data (due by end-July)... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (June 2025) There’s little in the Brazilian June CPI print that changes our view that last month’s hike marked the end to Copom’s tightening cycle. But a lot will now depend on how the trade dispute with the US... 10th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: on hold, but more easing to come The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today (at 2.50%), but gave strong hints that the easing cycle still had further to run. With growth set to struggle and inflation... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 17-18 2025) The minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting show most Fed officials content to wait and see what impact tariffs and other government policies had on inflation and the labour market before committing to... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.3% y/y in June gives Banxico room to continue its easing cycle in the coming months. But with inflation still above target and core inflation rising... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 16.8% y/y in May to 14.9% y/y in June amid a broad-based easing of price pressures and supports our non-consensus view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (July 2025) While the RBNZ predictably left rates on hold today, it signalled that it was likely to loosen policy further as long as capacity pressures continued to ease. As a result, we’re sticking to our... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
