Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec 2025) The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected, while acknowledging that the economic outlook has improved somewhat since... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Should central banks do more about the "AI bubble"? Concerns about a stock market bubble are unlikely to dictate central banks’ interest rate decisions in the near term. It’s difficult to call a bubble and even harder to manipulate stock markets... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2025) The drop in Brazilian inflation to 4.5% y/y in November won’t prompt an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting later today (we expect the Selic rate to stay at 15.00%). But it does suggest... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased a touch from 12.5% y/y in October to 12.3% y/y in November despite further rent rises and fuel subsidy cuts. Even so, given the Central Bank of Egypt’s own... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals upside risks to inflation and employment The November NFIB survey suggests that the labour market is regaining momentum, while also pointing to some upside risks to inflation. At the margin at least, that lends some support to our view that... 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The rise in Mexican inflation to 3.8% y/y in November is unlikely to stop Banxico from cutting its policy rate by another 25bp next week. But it supports our view that the easing cycle will be more... 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our key calls and forecasts to reflect the latest regional developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest... 9th December 2025 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a... 9th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will lift rates to 4.10% by mid-2026 The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be a rate hike as soon as February. 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2025) The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike. 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: long end yields may rise, despite more rate cuts Poland’s monetary easing cycle has dragged down short-term government bond yields, but unlike in past cycles, long-term yields haven’t come down very far. Even with the policy rate now likely to fall... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo signals further easing in 2026 The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a relatively dovish tone, suggesting that more fiscal support and monetary easing is on the cards next year. The leadership continues to highlight... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily FOMC on deck; JGBs under siege As the final round of G10 central bank policy meetings for the year kicks off, the emerging theme is divergence. That applies to both the immediate policy decisions and, more importantly, to the... 8th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank’s next move be a hike? The risk that the Bank of Canada shifts course and begins hiking is one we had not focused on as closely until today’s stellar November Labour Force Survey. While money markets are now fully pricing... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
