Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Ueda cautious despite strongest pay hikes in 34 years Even though this year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hike since 1991, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda this week sounded worried about developments overseas. That creates risk to... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Market impacts of central banks’ tariff responses While today's US PPI print supports our view that the Fed will stand pat this year, comments from central bankers in Canada and Japan suggest they may have different views about how over how to... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s last cut in the cycle We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK MPC not as dovish as March’s vote may suggest The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.50% at the policy meeting on Thursday 20th March and this might be the second meeting in a row when the vote suggests the Bank is... 13th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift one year on Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be... 13th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to hold, risks to the upside further ahead The strong inflation data so far this year supports our view that the Riksbank has already ended its loosening cycle and will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. And we expect the policy... 13th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Rises in oil output from OPEC+, starting in April will gradually provide a... 13th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC warns it must protect against tariff-induced inflation Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely anticipated, but we think that interest rates will stay higher than most others expect... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Little chance of a Powell put as Fed stands pat Comments from Chair Jerome Powell suggest the latest batch of soft activity data will not cause the FOMC to reassess its view that there is “no hurry” to cut interest rates again. Admittedly, some... 12th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2025) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.1% y/y in February is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. Our base case is that next week’s Copom meeting will see the final... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Case for further BoJ tightening continues to strengthen The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th March. But with inflation set to overshoot the Bank’s forecasts, we expect the Bank to hike rates again... 12th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0%... 11th March 2025 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economy well-placed to weather tariff storm India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 11th March 2025 · 17 mins read
