Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

The economy looks to be entering a period of below-potential growth, characterised by excess supply in the goods and labour markets. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation, which we think...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: labour market driving spending and inflation fears

The tightening of Brazil’s labour market and pick-up in wage growth over the first half of the year has supported a consumer boom. We expect conditions to cool over the coming quarters but, for now...

5th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ decision, Saudi Arabia’s Article IV, Egypt inflation

The recent slide in oil prices has raised the prospect that OPEC+ delays planned increases to output at its meeting next week, but this risks stoking tensions among key members if it means that the...

5th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economics Update

Risks to the global economy: your questions answered

We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update...

5th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (September 2024)

5th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

BoJ will deliver final rate hike later this year

The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls...

5th September 2024 · 18 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank puts up high bar for 50bp cut

Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further cuts are likely. We expect 25 bp cuts at the final two meetings this...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2024)

Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely. The tone of the communications was less...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: lessons from history point to April rate cut

Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in April, which is a little...

3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The fall in Turkish inflation, to 52.0% y/y, in August is likely to be followed by continued disinflation over the coming months. But there are signs in the breakdown that underlying inflation...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Korea: fall in inflation opens the door to October cut

Inflation in Korea fell back sharply last month, supporting our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in October.

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Economy losing momentum

Second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but the evidence that growth slowed sharply over the quarter suggests that third-quarter growth will be much weaker...

30th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

New bosses for Pemex and the BCB

The nomination of Gabriel Galípolo, an ally of President Lula, as the next head of Brazil’s central bank has raised concerns about the politicisation of monetary policy (and a dovish tilt). But...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Aug. 24)

Falling house prices and a soft labour market will continue to hold back consumer spending over the coming months. And with the PBOC concerned about a bond bubble, large-scale monetary easing appears...

30th August 2024 · 1 min read