Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q4 2025 & Annual 2025) GDP figures out of Central Europe this morning show that Poland’s recovery gathered pace, while Hungary lagged behind. We think that growth will pick up across the region this year, although Poland... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response New Fed Chair Announcement If officially announced later today, President Trump’s apparent pick of Kevin Warsh for the next Fed Chair would arguably be one of the better outcomes for investors compared to the other contenders... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly isolated, with the number of countries at “high risk” of a crisis now at multi-year lows. Sovereign... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s pause should not last long The South African Reserve Bank paused its easing cycle as we expected today, but the commentary was dovish suggesting even if positive shocks to inflation do emerge the path of interest rates will... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy unchanged again Nobody is expecting the ECB to change its policy stance or written guidance next week so the focus will be on the press conference. Christine Lagarde will be asked about the recent tariff threats... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch RBI to deliver one final rate cut next week The weakness of inflation over recent months continues to outweigh concerns about currency depreciation and leaves the door open for the RBI to deliver one final rate cut at the conclusion of the MPC... 29th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (January 2026) While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE’s wage worries to cement slower pace of rate cuts While leaving interest rates at 3.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 5th February, the Bank of England will probably hint that the next rate cut isn’t imminent and imply that rates may not fall... 29th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy still matters for the greenback We continue to think that a cautious Fed will mean Treasury yields rise a little and the US dollar strengthens, despite recent developments in the latter. 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS to stay on hold despite hawkish tilt Singapore’s central bank kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but adopted a slightly more hawkish tone. While risks to the policy outlook are now skewed modestly towards tighter policy later... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 2026) Brazil’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 15.00% as expected but the communications struck a much more dovish tone, suggesting that the first interest rate cut will be delivered at the next... 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to loosening bias despite stronger activity data The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is another sign that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is further evidence that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest... 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank in holding pattern awaiting CUSMA renegotiation The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB on the FX sidelines, but negative rates coming We do not think that the SNB has intervened in FX markets in recent days despite the Swiss franc’s large appreciation. Instead, we think policymakers are likely to combat any disinflationary pressure... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
