India Economics Weekly

MPC shake-up suggests no October rate cut

Confirmation that the two most dovish members of the MPC will be stepping down before the RBI's next policy meeting in October strengthens our view that the panel won't vote to cut rates in that...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ will press ahead with another rate hike

The jump in the unemployment rate in July is a lagged response to the weakness in economic activity around the turn of the year. Given that the July industrial production and retail sales data are...

30th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting

The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

PBOC buys bonds today but will be selling soon

The PBOC has just revealed that it purchased RMB400bn of government bonds from primary dealers today. This might seem like an odd move given that the central bank has spent recent months trying to...

29th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities

The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and should continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

29th August 2024 · 1 min read

Bank of Canada Watch

Another meeting, another 25bp cut

The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%...

28th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today (at 4.50%) rather than resume the easing cycle, reflects policymakers’ concerns with supply-side constraints in...

28th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (August 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead

The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest...

28th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '24)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (August 2024)

The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI...

27th August 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The Hungarian central bank suggested that its decision to leave the policy rate on hold today, at 6.75%, was likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, rather than an end to it. Even so, we...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2024)

The small fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, to 4.35% y/y in the first half of August, alongside the prospects of a Fed rate cut next month, means that Copom is most likely to leave rates...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer...

26th August 2024 · 1 min read