Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro implications of a weaker dollar Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MSCI threat adds to Indonesia’s woes The slump in Indonesia’s stock market today in the wake of a threat by MSCI to downgrade the country to “frontier market” status is the latest in a long list of issues that investors are grappling... 28th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB respond to the rising euro? The euro’s recent appreciation will reduce euro-zone inflation by a trivial amount, so for now the ECB is likely to do nothing to prevent it other than perhaps the mildest form of verbal intervention... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates in February and May The ongoing persistence in underlying inflation will persuade the Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse course on rate cuts. We expect the Bank to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, followed... 28th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2025) The sharper-than-expected rise in underlying inflation makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, gave no new guidance on the timing at which monetary easing may resume. But... 27th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 26) Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –... 27th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2026) The uptick in inflation in Brazil in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, will probably remove any lingering expectations for an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Copom meeting. But under the... 27th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 26th January 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business sentiment improving While we still expect that GDP will end the year on a softer note, the latest retail sales data suggest the economy performed a bit better than we thought a week ago, and the latest business surveys... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Next Fed chair to inherit a roaring economy We’ll be waiting at least another month now for the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-related tariffs. That means we’re on Fed Chair watch next week, to see if Trump... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Kast unveils his cabinet, Copom on hold next week Chilean president-elect Kast's cabinet suggest that the new administration's key priorities will be to strengthen Chile’s public finances and deregulate the economy. We doubt that this will lead to... 23rd January 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Greenland tensions aftermath, Germany finally recovering? We think that this week's flare-up in EU-US tensions over Greenland is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, data out of Germany suggest its economy may be turning a... 23rd January 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
