Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A subtle shift in the RBA’s rhetoric The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was always going to leave interest rates at 1.5% today, but there are some subtle signs that the Bank is becoming more concerned about the outlook for the labour... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate outlook Financial markets appear to be ignoring the Bank of Canada’s latest warnings about the uncertain economic outlook and are pricing in an interest rate hike before the end of this year. In contrast, we... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s sharp slowdown in euro-zone inflation was partly driven by temporary factors that will reverse in April, but the big picture is that inflation is now on a downward trend. So we expect the ECB... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report this month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. No country in Emerging Asia meets the criteria... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank unfazed by inflation surge The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today confirmed that policymakers are looking through the recent surge in inflation but, while inflation should start to fall... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at early koruna cap exit We think the next Czech MPC meeting on 4th May is the most likely date for a lifting of the koruna cap, but today’s comments by the Council have raised the risk that it happens outside of a scheduled... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB shifting towards a cut Today’s statement by the governor of the SARB suggests that policymakers will look through the current political crisis. Indeed, the tone of the statement – and the fact that one member voted for a... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services set to pull inflation higher A recent acceleration in producer prices of services combined with more upbeat survey evidence suggest that the prices that consumers pay for services will soon start picking up again. However, there... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Needle shifting slowly towards tighter policy Policymakers in the world’s major central banks have struck a more hawkish tone in recent weeks, but we expect policy to be tightened only in the US this year. While the ECB may announce plans to... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to stay low in Thailand With the economy showing signs of recovery and inflation back within its target band, the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today came as no surprise. Looking... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Out of the woods? Evidence of a sharp turnaround in growth and policymakers’ success in preventing a destabilising slide in the renminbi have underpinned a dramatic shift in sentiment towards China. But there are good... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC’s sterling conundrum The Monetary Policy Committee might be relieved to see the pound regaining a bit of ground in recent weeks. But it shouldn’t want the exchange rate to rise too far. 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
