US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stick with “patient” mantra At next week’s policy meeting, the Fed is likely to reiterate its current mantra that it can be “patient” in waiting to hike interest rates. Admittedly, stock markets have recovered most of the losses... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown worsens, nervous MPCs A raft of weak activity and survey data released this week reinforces our relatively downbeat view on the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe this year. Slowing growth seems to be worrying some... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Growth will pick up, despite faltering Nigeria After a very weak 2018, we expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen this year. The major oil exporters will, of course, suffer the effects of lower oil prices and our growth forecasts... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish change to ECB guidance likely soon Following today’s ECB press conference, we think that the Bank will soon change its forward guidance to make it clear that it won’t raise interest rates until 2020 at the earliest. We also suspect... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is behind the global slowdown? On the face of it, the slowdowns currently seen in many countries appear attributable to a range of country-specific factors. But could we be missing the wood for the trees? Although there is little... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank too optimistic on GDP growth Following today’s monetary policy announcement, the Norges Bank is almost certain to raise interest rates in March. But we think that it is still too optimistic about prospects for the economy this... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but the slightly more dovish statement supports our view that rate cuts will creep onto its agenda later this year. Whereas the... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to raise rates this year Today’s decision from the Bank of Korea (BoK) to keep rates on hold, and the downgrade in its forecasts, adds weight to our view that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2019. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to reverse course in 2020 The Fed will leave rates unchanged next week and may well include references to being “patient” in the policy statement and post-meeting press conference, to signal more clearly that a March rate hike... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan Meeting (Jan.) Economic growth is set to slow after October’s sales tax hike while inflation will remain well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. But with high hurdles to additional policy easing, we think that the... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Does the Fed have the tools to fight the next recession? There are good reasons to believe the next recession will be modest, which means that, even though the nominal interest rate would probably hit the near-zero lower bound again, the Fed should have the... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi’s successor likely to be more hawkish Whoever becomes the next ECB President is likely to be more “hawkish”, and perhaps less effective, than Mario Draghi. That may not matter if the economy recovers from its recent soft patch, allowing... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Monetary policy hinges on election result Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 14.00% today, and reiterated their support for the closely managed FX system. The controversial FX regime will almost certainly remain in place, unless a... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
