India Chart Pack Pre-election loosening to provide short-lived support Measures to loosen both fiscal and monetary policy announced this month could provide a small boost to demand in the near-term. The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget to shore up... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected outturn for Swedish inflation in January underlines our view that the Riksbank will be in no rush to raise interest rates again. Indeed, with core inflation remaining... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for interest rates in the Andes? The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in Chile means we now think that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle until next year (previously we expected 50bp of hikes... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policy response to a no deal Brexit As demand and supply would both drop after a no deal Brexit, it’s not obvious how policy should respond. But our view that the drop in demand would last longer than any fall in supply suggests the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data reinforce Fed’s “patient” stance The Fed’s “patient” stance was originally a response to the deteriorating global economic and financial market backdrop, but the dreadful activity data and subdued inflation figures out this week... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Implications of Riksbank’s FX and QE policies The Riksbank delivered a slightly more hawkish message than anticipated at its meeting this week, but we still think that the chance of an interest rate hike this year is falling. Meanwhile, despite... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE core inflation rising, CBRT considering backdoor easing? Data released this week showing a pick-up in core inflation in Hungary and the Czech Republic support our view that, unless the activity figures take a sharp turn for the worse, central banks in both... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly China and Germany, another Spanish election With Germany having narrowly avoided recession and Italy’s downturn dragging on, policymakers at the ECB will soon have to provide more clarity about which tools they are willing to use if the... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will policymakers fight the next downturn? Concerns that policymakers in developed countries do not have the tools to fight the next downturn are generally misplaced. There is plenty more they could do. The constraints will instead be... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian investment to fall, RBNZ tweaks stance Weak business sentiment in Australia is likely to be another drag on private investment in 2019. And given the role the housing downturn is playing in sentiment, we expect things to get worse before... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The drop in headline wholesale price inflation in January was broad based, but underlying inflation is likely to rise again before long. This underlines why we think the RBI’s recent rate cut, as well... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Chance of Riksbank rate hikes falling The Riksbank seems to be in denial about the weakening of Sweden’s economy. While it reiterated today that it expects to raise interest rates in the second half of this year, with the economy... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gets more realistic by taking a neutral stance We think the explicit neutral stance adopted by the RBNZ in today’s policy meeting is appropriate as we suspect that the economy will not gain enough momentum to support interest rate hikes until 2021... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Scope to stand out from the crowd Should a Brexit deal be reached within the next few months, the UK’s financial markets will probably buck the global trend with money market rates, Gilt yields and the pound all rising by more than is... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB respond to a recession? The next euro-zone recession is likely to begin before the ECB has raised interest rates from the “zero lower bound”. When it happens, we think the Bank will resume its asset purchase programme – but... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
