RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI may have to tighten soon In light of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalling the end of the loosening cycle in its most recent policy meeting in February, most analysts are now expecting the central bank to keep rates on... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana doubles down on rate cuts, Kenya will follow in H2 The Bank of Ghana’s sharp rate cut suggests that policy loosening will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We’ve revised down our end of year rate forecast from 20.00% to 18.00%. The... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlook for monetary policy in Sweden and Norway Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank starts slow but lengthy easing cycle Having cut the one-week repo rate by 25bp earlier in the day, Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used her post-meeting press conference to stress that further monetary easing will be... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte undermining reform prospects in the Philippines Struggles to push through much-needed tax reform in the Philippines are the first sign that President Duterte’s controversial war on drugs and offensive behaviour is undermining the efforts of his... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka hikes rates, further tightening likely Today’s 25bp rate hike by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is unlikely to be the last in the current tightening cycle. A combination of rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh Saudi devaluation fears look wide of the mark The recent dip in oil prices has raised concerns in some quarters that the Saudi authorities may devalue the riyal, but we find this highly unlikely. Indeed, the probability that the dollar peg will... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why won’t the MPC soon follow the Fed? Despite higher UK inflation and solid growth, there are good reasons why the MPC will not quickly follow the US Fed in tightening monetary policy. 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Improving economy means further rate cuts in Taiwan unlikely The decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375% came as no surprise given the recent rebound in the economy. With inflationary pressures still very weak, we... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep rates on hold this year Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% had been widely expected. Looking ahead, while a growing number of analysts are predicting... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation jumps, but no rush to tighten The jump in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month has shifted the focus onto policy tightening. But in most cases this has been a one-off rise from higher fuel inflation, and there is... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ keen for the dollar to weaken further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand used today’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% to emphasise once again that rates won’t be raised either this year or next. The financial markets are slowly... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
