Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: another emergency rate hike? The Turkish lira has recovered some of its losses in the past few hours, but the plunge in the currency over the past few weeks is now on a scale which has, in the past, prompted the central bank to... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA sounds upbeat, but still a long way from hiking The Reserve Bank of Australia appeared a bit more upbeat on the outlook for the domestic economy while leaving interest rates at 1.5% for the 24 th month today, but it continued to hint that interest... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The small rise in Russian headline inflation, to 2.5% y/y, was driven by higher food inflation, while underlying price pressures still look very soft. We still think the central bank will lower... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt offer suggests a deal is likely A new offer to restructure Mozambique’s debt hints at the shape that an eventual deal may take. An agreement would provide a boost to confidence in an economy that is already starting to recover. 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Some respite for the housing market The housing market enjoyed a little respite in June. The decline in buyer enquiries paused, new sales instructions rose and mortgage approvals recovered from their recent slide. But with house prices... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The implication of lower equilibrium interest rates The MPC has estimated that the long-term equilibrium interest rate for the UK economy lies between 2% and 3%. Such estimates are uncertain, but they do tend to reinforce the idea that, barring a... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Strong growth unlikely to last The world economy has rebounded after a sluggish first quarter, with global growth rising to around 4% annualised in Q2. But we doubt that this will last long because it has largely resulted from a... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM tightening cycle to kick on Inflationary pressures now seem to be building in many EMs. As a result, we think that the interest rate hikes seen in a few countries this week and that are likely next week will be followed by... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds of a H2 interest rate hike increase Although May’s strong GDP growth partly reflected a rebound from earlier weakness, it was nevertheless encouraging and June’s trade data suggest that the economy ended the second quarter on a high... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hawkish Banxico, Colombia’s austere budget Mexico’s central bank struck a hawkish tone in the statement accompanying this week’s monetary policy decision, and the markets are pricing in a good chance of another interest rate hike in the near... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) Non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest 157,000 in July but, with the gain in the preceding two months revised up by a cumulative 59,000, the labour market still appears to be in good health and... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Perfect storm brewing in Turkey, BMW comes to Hungary The US’s decision to impose sanctions on Turkey this week, as well as another bad inflation reading, has strengthened the case for further interest rate hikes. And there’s a growing risk of severe... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ tested, GDP rebounding The outlines of the Bank of Japan’s new policy framework have become clearer during the week: a more flexible approach to intervention, a focus on preventing sharp moves, but also a tolerance of... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC presses ahead, economy makes a decent start to Q3 After the recent run of upbeat economic news the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to raise rates this week came as little surprise. And the hawkish tone of the Minutes and Inflation Report lent... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa: Rate cuts continue, land reform fears overdone While policymakers in other EMs are hiking rates, we think that African central banks will follow Kenya's recent example and continue to ease policy over the next 18 months. Fears surrounding the... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Jul.) July’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster energy and food inflation, while underlying price pressures remained very weak. And with the franc set to remain strong by historical standards, we... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
