Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but fight against franc will need to continue The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold was as expected given the recent rise in inflation. But with euro-zone political developments likely to put upward pressure on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to tighten anytime soon The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely anticipated and Governor Kuroda remained cautious about the prospect of hitting the inflation target. While the consensus is... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank follows the Fed The People’s Bank has followed the Fed in raising the interest rate it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But we believe that tighter policy in China continues to be primarily... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Markets are overestimating the chance of rate hikes next year While there is a consensus among economists and financial markets alike that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep rates on hold at 1.75% when it meets next Thursday 23 rd March, we believe that... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia will not follow the Fed’s lead For most economies in Emerging Asia it will be local factors, not the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which will determine the next moves by the region’s central banks. 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The stronger than expected rise in the unemployment rate and the pick-up in the underutilisation rate, which is a broader measure of spare capacity, suggests that there is still plenty of slack in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2016) While GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was weaker than most had expected, this was largely the result of temporary factors and as such we expect growth in New Zealand to bounce back early... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates, but leaves forecasts unchanged As everyone expected following the recent blitz by officials to prepare the markets, the Fed raised the fed funds target by another 25bp today, to between 0.75% and 1.00%, but officials left their... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates still set to be cut later this year The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep policy unchanged after the lifting of capital controls was unsurprising. The recent drop in the króna reduces the need for the CBI to cut interest rates... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) After rising to a five-year high in February, Swedish headline inflation is set to ease back in the coming months as energy inflation cools. But with signs that underlying price pressures are rising... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The rise in Indian wholesale price inflation in February to its highest rate in over three years supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unfazed by the Fed Investors are now united in the belief that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, but we doubt that central banks in the emerging world will necessarily follow suit. Indeed, in several major... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the markets handle faster Fed tightening? The strong US Employment Report for February has all but sealed the deal for an interest rate rise at this week’s FOMC meeting. Risky asset markets seem relatively unfazed by the prospect, given how... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic króna to rise despite lifting of capital controls The Icelandic króna has fallen after the final step in the lifting of capital controls. But with tourism set to grow strongly, we suspect that the króna will rise and put downward pressure on import... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Talk of policy tightening will prove premature The Bank of Japan may upgrade its near-term outlook for inflation at its meeting this week. With inflation picking up again, a rising number of analysts now expect the Bank to tighten policy in coming... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
