Asia Chart Pack Asian currencies remain resilient Asian currencies have continued to hold up pretty well over the past few weeks despite the turmoil in EM currency markets. Since the start of August, the Korean won and the Thai baht have actually... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed pressing on with rate hikes, others well behind Fed officials look increasingly confident in their plans to raise interest rates twice more this year while ECB officials are on course to end their asset purchases by December. Next year, though, we... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Turkey worries rock South Africa, less effect elsewhere Fears that financial turbulence in Turkey were the first sign of broader problems rumbled markets across the emerging world in August, with South Africa one of the hardest-hit. The country has Africa... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are rising rates already weighing on the economy? With the fiscal stimulus acting as a strong tailwind, economic growth has been unusually strong over the past few months but, below the surface, signs are emerging that rising interest rates have... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How flexible is the Fed really? In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revived Greenspan-era arguments that policy should be flexible and follow a “risk management” approach, but we doubt this amounts to much in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s central bank on hold but rates to rise this year Although the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it expressed concern about rising inflation expectations ahead of wage negotiations later this year. So domestic inflationary... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Is the Governor warming to the idea of raising rates? Although the Reserve Bank of Australia will once again leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 4th September, we sense that Governor Lowe has started to send some subtle signals... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly New franc forecasts, Swedish election heats up The upward pressure on the Swiss franc eased this week and our forecasts for monetary policy in Switzerland suggest that the currency will continue to depreciate against the euro over the next couple... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ignoring the noise Amid all the political drama of the past week, the clear message from Fed officials is that they remain committed to their plans to continue raising interest rates. That’s unlikely to change until... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US tariffs, Greece and Italy all pose risks Greece’s exit from its bailout on Monday was widely hailed by European policymakers as a sign of success, but its problems are far from over. Meanwhile, comments from President Trump emphasised that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT signals rate hike, Malaysia pushes back on BRI Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures this week and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) increasingly hawkish rhetoric suggest a 25bp rate hike is likely at its next meeting on 19 th September. However, with... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to IMF, Rand wobbles, Zambia holds rates Few details about Angola’s request for IMF aid have been released, but any deal would boost investor confidence. We revised down our rand/dollar exchange rate forecasts this week. A tweet from... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
