Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US growth to slow even if Fed has stopped tightening Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rates hikes in Iceland looking less likely The Central Bank of Iceland had hinted only a few weeks ago that interest rate hikes were likely at the start of this year, but the recent economic data have been weak enough for it to hold fire today... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates on hold, no tightening likely in 2019 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today, but sounded surprisingly upbeat on the outlook for the economy. While this suggests that a further rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s new-found dovishness won’t prevent slowdown Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The next downturn: lessons from Japan Faced with a severe downturn, developed economies would exhaust their conventional monetary policy tools quickly. At first sight, Japan’s experience suggests that even the bold use of unconventional... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates in 2019 as reality bites Although the RBA took a more dovish tone when it left rates on hold today we think it will need to consider cutting rates before long as the economic outlook deteriorates. While the RBA still sees... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed capitulation won't prevent economic slowdown In a remarkable U-turn, the Fed appears to have abandoned plans to continue gradually raising interest rates it set out only six weeks ago. The markets unsurprisingly welcomed this dovish shift, but... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys point to contagion from euro-zone weakness Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament hits Brexit back to May Parliament hit the Brexit ball back into May’s court this week, leaving us with no clearer picture of how Brexit might unfold than we had this time last week. But beneath the bouncing Brexit headlines... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wilkins keeps quiet on rate hikes, GDP contracts Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins this week outlined the Bank of Canada’s thinking on wage growth. But by failing to repeat the Bank’s normal mantra about raising interest rates further, what... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan rates will remain on hold, but cuts elsewhere Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate unchanged this week, and we think that they will hold rates over the remainder of the year. Peers in Angola and Ghana – who cut this week – will probably... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) In advanced economies, monetary and credit conditions remain supportive. But bond issuance has been declining sharply in recent months, and credit growth in China is still slowing. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
