Bank of Japan Watch Cuts to inflation forecast to underline need for loose policy With economic growth strengthening recently, a slim majority of analysts now expects the Bank of Japan to start tightening policy by the end of next year. But stronger growth has failed to generate... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The further strengthening in underlying price pressures in the first quarter has increased the chances that the RBNZ will raise interest rates earlier than we had been expecting. Both we and the RBNZ... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia in no rush to hike rates despite further rise in inflation Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to a new eight-year high in March, but we see little prospect of a rate hike any time soon. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack KORUS renegotiation on the cards Confirmation that the US is seeking to renegotiate but not scrap the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is the latest sign that President Trump’s bark, at least when it comes to trade, is turning... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in March, but the bigger picture is that it remains close to its highest rate in three years, and that price pressures are still elevated. 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump faces several near-term challenges President Donald Trump’s new-found enthusiasm for realpolitik rather than the “America First” doctrine he championed in his inaugural speech is encouraging, but his administration still faces several... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity surveys point to faster growth Activity surveys suggest that economic growth in the largest Nordic and Swiss economies is set to pick up. In Switzerland, the KOF Business Barometer points to annual GDP growth rising from Q4’s 0.6%... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t raise interest rates to cool housing speculation The Bank of Canada confessed this week that speculation is partly responsible for the recent upswing in house prices, but doesn’t believe that higher interest rates are a solution to the problem. The... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five key calls for Emerging Asia The highlight of the coming week is a scheduled monetary policy meeting in Indonesia. Despite the poor growth outlook, we think interest rates will be left on hold against a backdrop of rising... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan remains too optimistic about inflation While there are good reasons to believe that inflation will continue to recover in coming months, the Bank of Japan’s most recent forecasts from January are far too optimistic. Downward revisions to... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea holds rates, prolonged pause likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, and with the economy starting to show signs of improvement and underlying price pressures benign, we think the BoK will maintain... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Monetary policy in Singapore to stay on hold With the growth outlook improving and inflation likely to remain fairly subdued, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which today left its monetary policy settings unchanged, is likely to be in... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no mood to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to stay neutral on the outlook for rates is understandable given how uneven recent economic growth has been. Until... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the MPC start to reverse QE? The fact that the MPC is unlikely to start to reverse its QE programme for a considerable period supports our view that interest rates will rise sooner and more quickly than is generally expected. 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed may not need to reduce its Treasury holdings after all After hiking the fed funds rate at both the June and September FOMC meetings, the Fed will begin to phase out the reinvestment of maturing principal on its asset holdings at the December meeting. A... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
