Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp divergence in Swiss and Swedish inflation in April supports our views that the Swiss National Bank will need to keep monetary policy loose for a long time to come but that Sweden’s Riksbank... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is central bank independence under threat? Despite the criticisms levelled at them over the past year, central banks are not likely to be stripped of their independence anytime soon, or have their mandates radically changed. Politicians who... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Shift in Riksbank stance unlikely until turn of the year Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that the proponents of last month’s shock QE extension are unlikely to change their minds on the direction of monetary policy any time soon. So there is little chance... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp decline in Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation has paused over the past three months, but it should soon resume. We think that it will fall to 1.0% later in the year, and remain well below the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, pause unlikely to last The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold, but a combination of rapid credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency suggests further tightening is only a matter of... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ again follow the Fed and the ECB? There is less evidence of spare capacity in Japan’s economy than in the euro-zone which might suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to hike rates before the ECB. However, the Bank has pledged to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP “minus US” – is it worth the bother? Even without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could still provide a decent boost to the four countries from Emerging Asia included in the deal. The risk is that without the carrot of access... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Q1 slowdown to keep MPC hawks at bay Weaker economic data and a rise in the pound is likely to silence some of the tentatively hawkish members of the MPC and mean that May’s Inflation Report strikes a relatively dovish tone. Nonetheless... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to rebound, but not enough for BoJ Underlying price pressures in Japan are not quite as weak as the recent negative reading for core inflation might suggest: it was caused by a slump in mobile phone prices that won’t continue. But... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An infrastructure Budget would be good for the economy We’re not too keen on the plans of the Australian Treasurer to distinguish “good” debt from “bad” debt in the Federal Budget on Tuesday, but we do like the sound of a budget that is expected to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lowe’s confidence in the economy grows The upbeat tone of the Statement on Monetary Policy confirms that the Reserve Bank of Australia has become less worried about low inflation and that further interest rates cuts have become much less... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A rising tide lifts all boats Survey data suggest that economic momentum among the major euro-zone economies has converged in 2017. Indeed, in April the spread between the Composite PMIs for Germany, France, Italy and Spain was... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC raises prospect of rate hike this year The Czech MPC’s statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting was generally quite dovish, but it does looks like the Council intends to start raising interest rates, albeit very slowly, this... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank stands pat, but a rate cut not far off The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came as no surprise, but we are among a very small minority of forecasters who think that the Bank will cut rates later in the year. 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ’s rate projections may reflect upturn in inflation While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 11 th May, in light of the stronger-than-anticipated first... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
